The problem of individualized prediction can be addressed using variants of conformal prediction, obtaining the intervals to which the actual values of the variables of interest belong. Here we present a method based on detecting the observations that may be relevant for a given question and then using simulated controls to yield the intervals for the predicted values. This method is shown to be adaptive and able to detect the presence of latent relevant variables.
翻译:个性化预测问题可以使用共形预测的变种来解决,从而获得所关心变量的实际值所属范围的区间。这里我们提出了一种方法,基于检测可能与给定问题相关的观测值,并使用模拟控制来预测值的区间。该方法被证明是自适应的,并能检测潜在的相关变量。