In this work, we propose an algorithm to simulate rare events for electronic circuit design. Our approach heavily relies on a smart use of importance sampling, which enables us to tackle probabilities of the magnitude 10 --10. Not only can we compute very rare default probability, but we can also compute the quantile associated to a given default probability and its expected shortfall. We show the impressive efficiency of method on real circuits.
翻译:在这项工作中,我们提出一种算法来模拟稀有事件用于电子电路设计。我们的方法在很大程度上依赖于对重要取样的明智使用,这使我们能够解决10-10级概率的概率问题。我们不仅可以计算非常罕见的默认概率,还可以计算与特定默认概率及其预期缺口相关的量。我们在真实电路上展示了方法的惊人效率。