Understanding how attitudes towards the Climate Emergency vary can hold the key to driving policy changes for effective action to mitigate climate related risk. The Oil and Gas industry account for a significant proportion of global emissions and so it could be speculated that there is a relationship between Crude Oil Futures and sentiment towards the Climate Emergency. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation for Topic Modelling on a bespoke Twitter dataset, this study shows that it is possible to split the conversation surrounding the Climate Emergency into 3 distinct topics. Forecasting Crude Oil Futures using Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average Modelling gives promising results with a root mean squared error of 0.196 and 0.209 on the training and testing data respectively. Understanding variation in attitudes towards climate emergency provides inconclusive results which could be improved using spatial-temporal analysis methods such as Density Based Clustering (DBSCAN).
翻译:石油和天然气行业占全球排放量的很大比例,因此可以推测原油期货与气候紧急情况的情绪之间存在某种关系。 利用冷淡的稀释式分配用于在可言的Twitter数据集上进行主题模拟,这项研究表明,围绕气候紧急情况的对话可以分为三个不同专题。 使用季节性自动递减综合平均移动模型预测原油期货,在培训和测试数据方面分别得出0.196和0.29的根正方位错误,从而产生有希望的结果。 了解对气候紧急情况的态度差异提供了无结果,而利用诸如密度基底集群(DBSCAN)等空间时空分析方法可以改进这些结果。