Hybrid Data-driven Framework for Shale Gas Production Performance Analysis via Game Theory, Machine Learning and Optimization Approaches

A comprehensive and precise analysis of shale gas production performance is crucial for evaluating resource potential, designing field development plan, and making investment decisions. However, quantitative analysis can be challenging because production performance is dominated by a complex interaction among a series of geological and engineering factors. In this study, we propose a hybrid data-driven procedure for analyzing shale gas production performance, which consists of a complete workflow for dominant factor analysis, production forecast, and development optimization. More specifically, game theory and machine learning models are coupled to determine the dominating geological and engineering factors. The Shapley value with definite physical meanings is employed to quantitatively measure the effects of individual factors. A multi-model-fused stacked model is trained for production forecast, on the basis of which derivative-free optimization algorithms are introduced to optimize the development plan. The complete workflow is validated with actual production data collected from the Fuling shale gas field, Sichuan Basin, China. The validation results show that the proposed procedure can draw rigorous conclusions with quantified evidence and thereby provide specific and reliable suggestions for development plan optimization. Comparing with traditional and experience-based approaches, the hybrid data-driven procedure is advanced in terms of both efficiency and accuracy.