We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and restore processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson process models that describe how resilience events progress and verify that they are typical using extensive outage data collected across North America. Some usual duration metrics show impractically high statistical variability, and we recommend new duration metrics that perform better. Moreover, the Poisson process models have parameters that can be estimated from observed network data under different weather conditions, and are promising new models of typical resilience events.
翻译:我们讨论如何通过模拟断电和从公用数据中恢复过程来测量电源传输系统复原力事件的持续时间。 我们引入了新型 Poisson进程模型,描述复原力事件的进展,并用在北美各地收集的广泛断电数据来核实其典型性。 一些通常的持续时间指标显示了不切实际的高统计变异性,我们建议了效果更好的新的持续时间指标。 此外, Poisson进程模型有可以从不同天气条件下观测到的网络数据中估算出来的参数,并且是典型的复原力事件有希望的新模式。