We consider the problem of causal discovery (structure learning) from heterogeneous observational data. Most existing methods assume a homogeneous sampling scheme, which leads to misleading conclusions when violated in many applications. To this end, we propose a novel approach that exploits data heterogeneity to infer possibly cyclic causal structures from causally insufficient systems. The core idea is to model the direct causal effects as functions of exogenous covariates that properly explain data heterogeneity. We investigate structure identifiability properties of the proposed model. Structure learning is carried out in a fully Bayesian fashion, which provides natural uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate its utility through extensive simulations and a real-world application.
翻译:我们从各种观测数据中考虑因果发现(结构学习)问题。大多数现有方法假定采用同质抽样办法,在许多应用中被违反时得出误导性结论。为此,我们提议采用新颖办法,利用数据差异性,从因果不足的系统推断出可能的周期性因果结构。核心思想是将直接因果影响作为外部共变的功能进行模型,以适当解释数据差异性。我们调查拟议模型的结构可识别性。结构学习完全以巴耶斯方式进行,提供自然不确定性的量化。我们通过广泛的模拟和现实应用来证明其效用。