Passing during power plays in hockey is a crucial component to move one's team closer to scoring a goal. With the use of women's ice hockey event and tracking data from the elimination round games during the 2022 Winter Olympics, we evaluate passing and assess players' risk-reward behaviours in these high intensity moments. We develop a model for probabilistic passing that accounts for order of arrival to a desired location and potential interceptions along the way. This model is based on a player-specific motion model and a puck motion model that determines how far each player can reach in the time it takes the puck to reach a target. In addition, we model the rink control for each team and the scoring probability of the offensive team. These models are then combined into new metrics for quantifying where a pass should be made such that it would result in a high scoring opportunity or result in a high chance of maintaining possession. Finally, we use various metrics the evaluate passes made throughout the available power plays and compare them to the optimal options at that time. This can be used to identify the risk-reward tendencies of various players and can be used by coaches when selecting which players are best suited for a power play given the circumstances of the game.
翻译:在曲棍球中玩权玩时,通过在曲棍球游戏中传递权力是让球队更接近达到一个目标的关键组成部分。通过使用妇女冰冰冰比赛和跟踪2022年冬季奥林匹克运动会中消除回合比赛的数据,我们评估球员在这种高强度时刻的过球和风险回报行为。我们开发了一种概率性通过模型,用于将到达到一个理想地点的顺序记账,并沿途进行可能的拦截。这个模型基于一个玩家特有的运动模型和一个Puck运动模型,该模型决定每个球员在球杆到达一个目标时能达到什么程度。此外,我们模拟了每个球员的进场控制以及进攻队的得分概率。这些模型随后被合并为新的衡量标准,用于量化在哪些地方应该让一个球员到达一个高得分的机会或导致一个保持拥有的很大机会。最后,我们使用各种衡量尺度来评价整个现有电场的通行证,并将它们与当时的最佳选项进行比较。这可用于确定各个球员的风险向上的趋势,并且可供教练在选择哪个球场的最佳位置时使用。