Inferring Stochastic Group Interactions within Structured Populations via Coupled Autoregression

The internal behaviour of a population is an important feature to take account of when modelling their dynamics. In line with kin selection theory, many social species tend to cluster into distinct groups in order to enhance their overall population fitness. Temporal interactions between populations are often modelled using classical mathematical models, but these sometimes fail to delve deeper into the, often uncertain, relationships within populations. Here, we introduce a stochastic framework that aims to capture the interactions of animal groups and an auxiliary population over time. We demonstrate the model's capabilities, from a Bayesian perspective, through simulation studies and by fitting it to predator-prey count time series data. We then derive an approximation to the group correlation structure within such a population, while also taking account of the effect of the auxiliary population. We finally discuss how this approximation can lead to ecologically realistic interpretations in a predator-prey context. This approximation can also serve as verification to whether the population in question satisfies our various simplifying assumptions. Our modelling approach will be useful for empiricists for monitoring groups within a conservation framework and also theoreticians wanting to quantify interactions, to study cooperation and other phenomena within social populations.