We propose some extensions to semi-parametric models based on Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). In the semi-parametric BART paradigm, the response variable is approximated by a linear predictor and a BART model, where the linear component is responsible for estimating the main effects and BART accounts for non-specified interactions and non-linearities. Previous semi-parametric models based on BART have assumed that the set of covariates in the linear predictor and the BART model are mutually exclusive in an attempt to avoid poor coverage properties and reduce bias in the estimates of the parameters in the linear predictor. The main novelty in our approach lies in the way we change the tree-generation moves in BART to deal with this bias and resolve non-identifiability issues between the parametric and non-parametric components, even when they have covariates in common. This allows us to model complex interactions involving the covariates of primary interest, both among themselves and with those in the BART component. Our novel method is developed with a view to analysing data from an international education assessment, where certain predictors of students' achievements in mathematics are of particular interpretational interest. Through additional simulation studies and another application to a well-known benchmark dataset, we also show competitive performance when compared to regression models, alternative formulations of semi-parametric BART, and other tree-based methods. The implementation of the proposed method is available at \url{https://github.com/ebprado/CSP-BART}.
翻译:在半参数BART范式中,反应变量以线性预测器和BART模型相近,即线性组成部分负责估计主要效果,而BART账户则负责估算非特定相互作用和非线性组成部分之间的非特定相互作用和非线性影响。以前基于BART的半参数模型假定线性预测器和BART模型中的共变体是相互排斥的,目的是避免覆盖面差,减少线性预测器参数估计数中的偏差。我们方法中的主要新颖之处在于:我们改变BART的树种生成动作,以应对这种偏差,并解决参数性和非线性相互作用和非线性组成部分之间的不可识别性问题,即使它们具有共同的共变式。这使我们能够模拟涉及主要利益共变体的一组相互作用,无论是它们本身之间,还是与BART组成部分的组合。我们的新方法是分析国际教育评估的数据,其中某些预测器是BART-ART/REB成果的预测器,我们的方法主要是数学中的另一种模拟方法,我们比BB的模型中的另一种比较方法是另一种模拟方法。我们用来分析其他的数学方法。