Task embeddings in multi-layer perceptrons for multi-task learning and inductive transfer learning in renewable power forecasts have recently been introduced. In many cases, this approach improves the forecast error and reduces the required training data. However, it does not take the seasonal influences in power forecasts within a day into account, i.e., the diurnal cycle. Therefore, we extended this idea to temporal convolutional networks to consider those seasonalities. We propose transforming the embedding space, which contains the latent similarities between tasks, through convolution and providing these results to the network's residual block. The proposed architecture significantly improves up to 25 percent for multi-task learning for power forecasts on the EuropeWindFarm and GermanSolarFarm dataset compared to the multi-layer perceptron approach. Based on the same data, we achieve a ten percent improvement for the wind datasets and more than 20 percent in most cases for the solar dataset for inductive transfer learning without catastrophic forgetting. Finally, we are the first proposing zero-shot learning for renewable power forecasts to provide predictions even if no training data is available.
翻译:在可再生能源预测中,最近引入了多层次多任务学习和感应传导学习的多层透镜中嵌入任务的任务。在许多情况下,这种方法改进了预测错误,减少了所需的培训数据。然而,它并没有考虑到一天之内电力预测中的季节影响,即二极元周期。因此,我们将这一想法扩大到时间变迁网络,以考虑这些季节性。我们提议通过演进和向网络剩余区提供这些结果,来改造嵌入空间,其中含有任务之间的潜在相似之处。拟议结构大大改进到25%,用于多任务学习欧洲WindFarm和德国SolarFarm的电力预报数据集,与多层透镜方法相比。根据同一数据,我们实现了风数据集的10%的改进,大多数情况下,太阳能数据集的20%以上用于感应传输学习,而不会造成灾难性的遗忘。最后,我们首次提出对可再生能源预测进行零发式学习,以提供预测,即使没有培训数据。