Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as an automated solution to scale up traditional contact tracing. However, the required penetration of contact tracing apps within a population to achieve a desired target in the control of the epidemic is currently under discussion within the research community. In order to understand the effects of digital contact tracing, several mathematical models have been proposed. In this article, we survey the main ones and we propose a compartmental SEIR model with which it is possible, differently from the models in the related literature, to derive closed-form conditions regarding the control of the epidemic as a function of the contact tracing apps penetration and the testing efficiency. Closed-form conditions are crucial for the understandability of models, and thus for decision makers (including digital contact tracing designers) to correctly assess the dependencies within the epidemic. With our model, we find that digital contact tracing alone can rarely tame an epidemic: for unrestrained COVID-19, this would require a testing turnaround of around 1 day and app uptake above 80% of the population, which are very difficult to achieve in practice. However, digital contact tracing can still be effective if complemented with other mitigation strategies, such as social distancing and mask-wearing.
翻译:由于这个原因,限制和跟踪接触是控制COVID-19流行病的关键战略; 提议数字接触追踪是扩大传统接触追踪的一个自动化解决办法; 然而,研究界目前正在讨论在人口内部安装联系追踪应用程序的必要渗透,以实现控制该流行病的预期目标; 为了了解数字联系追踪的影响,已提出若干数学模型; 在本条中,我们调查主要模型,并提出一个分离的SEIR模型,与相关文献中的模型不同,我们提议采用这种模型,以获得控制该流行病的封闭式条件,作为扩大传统接触追踪的自动化办法; 但是,在研究界中,正在讨论在人口内部安装所需的接触追踪应用程序,以实现控制该流行病的预期目标; 为了正确评估数字联系追踪的影响,我们提出了若干数学模型。 我们发现,仅进行数字联系追踪,几乎无法抑制一种流行病:由于不受限制的COVID-19,这需要大约1天左右的测试,而控制该流行病的封闭式条件,作为联系应用程序渗透和测试效率的一种功能; 封闭式条件对于模型的可理解性,因此对于决策者(包括数字联系追踪设计师)正确评估该流行病的可靠性,对于正确评估该流行病的可靠性至关重要。,如果在80%以上,那么,那么,数字联系将无法进行这种方式,那么,那么,那么,那么,那么,则可以使数字联系将无法进行。