The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a ubiquitous decision-making problem that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. Standard formulations exclude risk in decision making. Risk notably complicates the basic reward-maximising objective, in part because there is no universally agreed definition of it. In this paper, we consider a popular risk measure in quantitative finance known as the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). We explore the performance of a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm CVaR-TS under this risk measure. We provide comprehensive comparisons between our regret bounds with state-of-the-art L/UCB-based algorithms in comparable settings and demonstrate their clear improvement in performance. We also include numerical simulations to empirically verify that CVaR-TS outperforms other L/UCB-based algorithms.
翻译:多武装土匪(MAB)问题是一个无处不在的决策问题,它代表着勘探-开发交易。标准配方排除了决策风险。风险明显使基本奖励最大化目标复杂化,部分原因是没有普遍同意的定义。在本文件中,我们认为定量融资中流行的风险评估措施称为“风险条件值 ” (CVaR) 。我们探讨了在这一风险措施下基于汤普森抽样算法CVAR-TS的绩效。我们提供了在可比环境中与基于最新L/UB的算法的遗憾界限之间的全面比较,并展示了这些算法在业绩方面的明显改进。我们还进行了数字模拟,以根据经验核实CVaR-TS是否优于基于L/UCB的其他算法。