The computational prediction algorithm of neural network, or deep learning, has drawn much attention recently in statistics as well as in image recognition and natural language processing. Particularly in statistical application for censored survival data, the loss function used for optimization has been mainly based on the partial likelihood from Cox's model and its variations to utilize existing neural network library such as Keras, which was built upon the open source library of TensorFlow. This paper presents a novel application of the neural network to the quantile regression for survival data with right censoring, which is adjusted by the inverse of the estimated censoring distribution in the check function. The main purpose of this work is to show that the deep learning method could be flexible enough to predict nonlinear patterns more accurately compared to existing quantile regression methods such as traditional linear quantile regression and nonparametric quantile regression with total variation regularization, emphasizing practicality of the method for censored survival data. Simulation studies were performed to generate nonlinear censored survival data and compare the deep learning method with existing quantile regression methods in terms of prediction accuracy. The proposed method is illustrated with two publicly available breast cancer data sets with gene signatures. The method has been built into a package and is freely available at \url{https://github.com/yicjia/DeepQuantreg}.
翻译:神经网络的计算预测算法,或深层学习,最近在统计以及图像识别和自然语言处理方面引起许多注意。特别是在对受审查的生存数据的统计应用中,优化所用的损失功能主要基于Cox模型的部分可能性及其利用现有神经网络图书馆的变异,如Keras,该模型建在TensorFlow开放源库之上。本文展示神经网络对经右检查的求生数据量化回归的一个新应用,该技术经过对检查功能中估计审查分布的反差调整。这项工作的主要目的是表明深层学习方法可能具有足够的灵活性,以便更准确地预测非线性模式,与现有的四分回归方法相比,如传统线性微量回归和非线性微量回归,与完全变异调节。本文强调了受审查的生存数据方法的实用性。进行了模拟研究,以生成非线性审查的生存数据,并将深层学习方法与现有的定量回归方法在预测准确性方面进行了比较。提议的方法是表明,深度学习方法可以与现有的四分法/Q;拟议方法以两种可公开使用的基因模型显示。