How do international crises unfold? We conceive of international affairs as a strategic chess game between adversaries, necessitating a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over different contexts and periods. We develop such a measurement strategy with an ontology of crisis actions and interactions and apply it to a high-quality corpus of crisis narratives recorded by the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that the ontology has high coverage over most of the thoughts, speech, and actions contained in these narratives and produces high inter-coder agreement when applied by human coders. We introduce a new crisis event dataset ICB Events (ICBe). We find that ICBe captures the process of a crisis with greater accuracy and granularity than other well-regarded events or crisis datasets. We make the data, replication material, and additional visualizations available at a companion website www.crisisevents.org.
翻译:国际危机如何演化?我们把国际事务视为对手之间的战略象棋游戏,需要系统地对不同背景和时期的碎片、移动和图象进行准确和一致的测量。我们制定这样的衡量战略,对危机行动和互动进行本体学的统计,并将其应用于国际危机行为项目所记录的一系列高质量的危机叙事。我们证明,这些叙事中所载的大部分思想、言论和行动都包含在网上,当人类编码员应用时,则产生高度的对立协议。我们引入了一个新的危机事件数据集ICB事件(ICBE)。我们发现,ICBE比其他受人注目的事件或危机数据集更精确、更颗粒地捕捉了危机过程。我们在一个配套网站www.cristicalevents.org上提供了数据、复制材料和更多可视化信息。