This study proposes a method for efficient delivery of liquefied petroleum gas cylinders based on demand forecasts of gas usage. To maintain a liquefied petroleum gas service, gas providers visit each customer to check the gas meter and replace the gas cylinder depending on the remaining amount of gas. These visits can be categorized into three patterns: non-replacement visit, replacement before the customer runs out of gas, and replacement after the customer runs out of gas. The last pattern is a crucial problem in sustaining a liquefied petroleum gas service, and it must be reduced. By contrast, frequent non-replacement visits are required to prevent the customer from running out of gas, but it requires considerable effort. One of the most severe difficulties of this problem is acquiring the gas usages of each customer only by visiting. However, with the recent spread of smart sensors, the daily gas consumption of each house can be monitored without having to visit customers. Our main idea is to categorize all customers into three groups: high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk by focusing on an urgent need for cylinder replacement based on the demand forecast. Based on this idea, we construct an algorithm to maximize the delivery for moderate-risk customers while ensuring delivery to high-risk customers. Long-term optimal delivery planning is realized by achieving workload balancing per day. The verification experiment in Chiba prefecture in Japan showed the effectiveness of our algorithm in reducing the number of out-of-gas cylinders. Moreover, the proposed model is a new generic framework for building an optimal vehicle routing plan, consisting of a complementary algorithm, demand forecast, delivery list optimization, and delivery route optimization for realizing a long-term optimal delivery plan by setting the priority.
翻译:这项研究根据对天然气使用情况的需求预测,提出了高效提供液化石油气气瓶的方法。为了保持液化石油气服务,天然气供应商需要经常进行不更换访问,以防止客户用完天然气,但需要作出相当大的努力。 这一问题的一个最严重困难是,只能通过访问获得每个客户的天然气使用量。 然而,随着智能传感器最近的扩展,每所房子的日常天然气消耗量可以不必访问客户而加以监测。我们的主要想法是将所有客户分为三类:高风险、中度风险和低风险。根据需求预测,通过侧重于对气瓶更换的迫切需要进行定期不更换访问,从而防止客户用完天然气,但需要作出相当大的努力。 这一问题的一个最严重的困难是,通过访问只能通过访问获得每个客户的天然气使用量。 然而,随着智能传感器最近的扩散,每所房子的日常天然气消耗量可以不必访问客户。我们的主要想法是将所有客户分为三个类别:高风险、中度风险和低风险。 根据需求预测,我们为最佳交付量的迫切需求列表,我们为最佳交付量的交付量,我们为达到最佳交付量的交付量制定一个最优化的算法,通过长期的交付量,确保长期风险交付量的交付量的交付量的交付量的交付量,通过实现长期风险的交付量。