长江源区冰川面积-表面形态变化及其对水资源的影响研究

项目名称： 长江源区冰川面积-表面形态变化及其对水资源的影响研究

项目编号： No.41271090

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 张世强

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 流域/区域冰川物质平衡变化及其影响是全球海平面变化和区域水资源变化研究中的基本科学问题之一。建立准确的冰川面积-冰量变化模型不仅为准确评估我国冰川变化对海平面上升的贡献提供支持，而且为准确预估区域冰川融水径流变化及可持续发展决策提供支持。本项目拟利用高精度的卫星立体像对，结合对典型冰川高精度差分GPS地面调查，获取长江源区冰川区高精度的数字高程模型。利用多期遥感资料，以及现有1:100000数字高程模型，分析长江源区冰川长度、面积和沿主流线上冰面高程的变化规律，建立冰川的表面形态-面积变化模型。将冰川度日因子模型与冰川的形态-面积变化模型相结合的统计模型、冰川动力学模型的模拟结果和遥感监测结果对比，完善考虑冰川变化的物质平衡/冰川径流模型，模拟长江源区冰川对过去几十年的气候变化的响应过程。由降尺度后的全球气候模型的集合预估结果驱动冰川径流模型，预估长江源区未来冰川变化及对水资源的影响。

中文关键词： 冰川；冰川融水；冰面高程变化；水文模型；预估

英文摘要： Glacier mass balance change of basin or region and its impact is one of the basic issues of study on global sea level rise and regional water resource. Accurately modeling the glaciers area-volume change relationship not only provide data to support accurate assessment the contribution of glaciers in China to sea level rise, but also important to estimate regional glacial meltwater runoff change and regional sustainable development decision-making. The project intends to use high-precision satellite stereo pairs, combined with ground differential GPS ground survey on typical glaciers, to construct high-precision digital elevation model (DEM) of glaciers in the source region of Yangtze River. By using multi-temporal remote sensing data, as well as existing 1:100,000 DEM, the changes of glacier length, area and the surface elevation along the mainstream were analyzed, and the glacier area-volume change model will be established. By comparing the results simulated by one degree-day model coupled to the glacier area-volume change staticistic model, and glacier area change simulated by glacier dynamics model with glacier change monitered by remote sensing data, one glacier mass balance/runoff model considing glacier area change will be improved. Then the model will be used to simulate the process of glaciers respo

英文关键词： glacier；glacier meltwater；ice surface elevation chane；hydrological model；project