种群年龄/病程的异质性对传染病传播和控制的影响

项目名称： 种群年龄/病程的异质性对传染病传播和控制的影响

项目编号： No.11271190

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 邱志鹏

作者单位： 南京理工大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 控制传染病的传播是全球公共安全最为优先考虑的问题，而种群年龄和疾病病程的异质性则是影响传染病传播的重要因素，因此利用年龄/病程结构传染病模型研究传染病的传播规律和控制措施的有效性及相关问题更加可靠和符合实际。本项目根据具体传染病的传播特点及其控制的实际背景建立具有年龄/病程结构的传染病模型；利用数学理论并结合实际数据的数值仿真分析系统的局部和整体动力学性态；研究种群年龄和疾病病程的异质性对传染病传播和控制措施的影响；从而评估控制措施的有效性及相关问题。并提供在一定控制代价前提下控制传染病传播的最佳方案或在一定的控制效果下寻求代价最小的控制方案。此外，变异菌株的出现是药物性防控传染病的潜在风险之一，本项目还将在此情形下评估药物性控制措施的潜在风险。本项目的研究将有助于人们了解年龄/病程的异质性对传染病传播和控制的影响，理解传染病控制措施的有效性和潜在风险，对传染病的防治提供重要的依据和指南。

中文关键词： 年龄/病程结构；传染病模型；疾病控制；稳定性分析；有效性

英文摘要： The top priority of global public safety is to prevent and contain the spread of infectious diseases. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is greatly influenced by the heterogeneity of the population age and the infection age. Therefore, it is imperative and reliable to formulate the transmission of infectious diseases by using the age or infection-age structured epidemical models, and use the models to study their transmission dynamics, the effectiveness of control measures and some related issues. In the project, we will formulate the epidemic models by including the heterogeneity of the population age or the infection age based on the transmission mechanism of specific infectious diseases and their actual control background, then analyze the local and global dynamics of the epidemic models with a combination of mathematical theory and numerical simulations. One important purpose of the project is to use the age or infection age structured epidemic models to investigate the effect of the heterogeneity of population age and infection age on the transmisison dynamic of infectious diseases and control measures, and to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures on containging the spread of the diseases and related issues. We are also interesed in the optimal control issues: to find the optimal contro

英文关键词： age structure；epidemic models；disease control；stability analysis；effectiveness