中国男男性行为人群艾滋病流行模式、传播因素及防治策略建模研究

项目名称： 中国男男性行为人群艾滋病流行模式、传播因素及防治策略建模研究

项目编号： No.71473234

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 吕繁

作者单位： 中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 艾滋病流行规律显示：当性传播成为主要途径，其扩散速度将加快，对社会危害更大，我国已处于这个阶段。其中，男男性传播因性活跃度高、性伴多、性频次多、艾滋病感染率高而尤为引人关注，我国为此投入了大量的人力和经费，并制定了繁多的策略。但是，纵览国际和国内，对男男性行为人群感染艾滋病的防控效果都不明显，采取的各类措施存在不足，这也成为中国乃至全球的难题。究其原因，相关研究都没有准确回答男男性行为传播艾滋病的动力、因素和机制，因此，防控策略难以奏效。本研究拟通过现场调查和构建系统动力学模型，分析并明确动力、因素和机制。在此基础上，通过在不同经济水平、不同疫情的样本地区，选择不同亚文化的人群开展试点模拟，形成防控策略；通过构建Markov模型，对策略进行成本效果评估；通过政治、经济、社会、文化、法律等论证，开展可行性评价。综合评估，最终形成适合我国的能指导实践工作的防控男男性行为传播艾滋病的策略。

中文关键词： 艾滋病；男男性行为；系统动力学；策略；马尔科夫模型

英文摘要： The characters of the HIV epidemic have demonstrated that the rate of the diffusion on HIV/AIDS will be accelerated and conduct the greater harm to the society when the way of the sexually transmission is the main way to transmit the HIV/AIDS. And now China has been located in this stage. The sexual transmission by the MSM is especially concerned due to the more sexual activities, the more sexual partners, the high sexual frequency and the HIV/AIDS infection rate. Therefore a lot of human resources and funding have been putted in the HIV intervention on the MSM, and a variety of strategies have been developed in China. However the outcome and impact of the HIV prevention and control on the MSM are not obvious according to the overview of international and domestic studies, and the defects are also found in the various HIV response measures on MSM. This has also become the problem of China and even of the world. The reasons are that the real dynamics, the factors and the mechanisms of the HIV transmission by MSM haven't accurately been answered by the related studies and this leads to the ineffective strategies taken on HIV response. This study is to analyze and define the driving force, the factors and the mechanisms through the on-site investigation and the systematic dynamics model constructed. Based on this, the strategies of the HIV response will be formed after the pilot has been conducted and simulated at the different economic levels, in the different epidemic areas and in the different subcultures. The cost-effectiveness on the strategies will be assessed by the Markov model developed. The feasibility evaluation will be conducted considering the aspects of the political, economic, social, cultural and legal. Through the comprehensive analysis, the strategies on HIV response that is suitable to our country will be formed and guide the practice of the prevention and control on the sexual transmission by MSM eventually.

英文关键词： HIV/AIDS;MSM;System Dynamics;strategy;Markov Model