民用航空发动机多阶段性能退化规律及剩余寿命预测方法研究

项目名称： 民用航空发动机多阶段性能退化规律及剩余寿命预测方法研究

项目编号： No.U1533128

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 无线电电子学、电信技术

项目作者： 刘君强

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 29万元

中文摘要： 针对发动机健康管理从事后管理转变为实时动态管理的趋势，研究民航发动机健康运行的关键问题。将载荷冲击和维修引起的发动机性能退化速度变化问题和性能退化模型结合，提出了民航发动机多阶段性能退化规律和预测方法的研究。主要内容包括：1）结合载荷冲击和维修数据研究发动机健康运行可靠性问题，提出了基于多阶段-维纳过程的性能退化模型。2）多阶段的性能退化模型的显著性检验问题.将突变触发因素和多阶段统计相结合，从非线性显著水平、显著度等参数检验多阶段退化的有效性。3）发动机健康态势预测规律：将可靠性模型、单台发动机的性能数据和突变阶段数据相结合，实时预测出发动机的多阶段的剩余寿命。课题成果将揭示航空发动机健康运行规律，提高发动机健康安全运行水平提供理论依据和决策参考。

中文关键词： 可靠性；剩余寿命预测；维纳过程；预测模型

英文摘要： Due to the requirements of safety process management and real-time dynamic management，the key issues of engine health operation of civil aviation are studied. It combines multiple stages trait produced by load effect,maintenance quality and performance degradation model, and proposes the evolution of the healthy operation of civil aviation and prediction method. The research contents are summarized as follows. 1) Operation reliability model based on load effect and maintenance quality. This method uses separated-phase Wiener process to characterize the performance degradation of aero-engines, and the variability of engines are described by random parameters. 2）The significance test of the multi stage performance degradation model. It combines the mutation factor and the multi-stage statistics, and use some coefficients such as the significant degree, nonlinear significant level, to carry on outstanding check of multi-stage model. 3) Prediction model of residual useful life. It proposes a residual lifetime prediction method based on multiply stages Wiener process with random effects, real-time data of individual engine and mutation stage data. Results of the project will reveal the operating rules, enhance the level of engine health management and provide better decision-making.

英文关键词： Reliability;Prediction of Residual Useful Life;Wienar Process;Prediction Model