突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的人群仿真研究

项目名称： 突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的人群仿真研究

项目编号： No.71273132

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 吴鹏

作者单位： 南京理工大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 在突发事件中网民群体是推动网络舆情演变的行为主体。因此，为了发现突发事件网络舆情演变的内在规律，需要以突发事件中的网民群体为中心，关注网络舆情演变的整个过程。人群仿真将个体看作智能体（Agent），可以揭示群体在某一情境下的行为规律，建立该情境下的群体行为模型，从行为和运动两方面描述智能体决策的作用机制。本项目引入人群仿真理论和方法，将网民映射为智能体，探索突发事件网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为特征和建模方法，构建群体行为仿真模型，分析网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为演化的"感知?? 决策??行为??动作??反馈"的闭环过程，获得突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的网民群体智能体模型，网民群体行为的认知行为模型、行为转换规则、情感状态表示与转换模型、行为选择模型以及影响要素，从而解释突发事件网络舆情演变的内在机理，进而在突发事件应急管理中预测网络舆情演变的路径，支持网络舆情监控和信息公开策略的制定。

中文关键词： 人群仿真；突发事件；网络舆情；群体行为；

英文摘要： The netizen crowd is the main behavior body of the drive of the evolution of the network public opinion in unexpected events. So , We need to take netizen crowd as the central of the research of unexpected event, and pay attention to the process of public opinion evolution,by which we can discover the inner rule of the public opinion evolution in the unexpected event. Crowd simulation take the individual as the agent, which can explain the behavior rule of crowd in a certain context, and build the crowd behavior model ,so we can describe the effect mechanism of agent decision of the dimension of the behavior and movement. We import the theory and method of crowd simulation in this project, the netizen can be mapped as the agent .In the next step ,we can discover the crowd behavior characters and modeling methods ,and build simulation model, so we can analyze the closed loop process of evolution the netizen collective behavior in the evolution process of network public opinion, which involves the steps aware ,decision, behavior, action, feedback. As the result, the following achievement can be got, which involves the netizen crowd agent model and the netizen collective behavior.In detail, achievements include the cognition behavior rule, behavior transition rule, sensibility status denotation and transitio

英文关键词： Crowd Simulation；Crisis Events；Network Public Opinion；Collective Behavior；