突发事件下人车混合疏散行为及应急疏导策略研究

项目名称： 突发事件下人车混合疏散行为及应急疏导策略研究

项目编号： No.71303051

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 赵永翔

作者单位： 福州大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 我国是突发事件频发的国家之一，现有研究大多只考虑单一的人群疏散或车辆疏散，缺少人车混合疏散行为及演化规律研究，因而缺乏现实适用性。本研究针对我国人车混合疏散的实际需求，开展面向突发事件的人车混合疏散行为及应急疏导策略研究。 借助心理学问卷设计、行为调查、意愿调查、仿真情景实验等方法分析人车混合疏散的复杂社会心理与行为特征；通过视频图像识别与物联网定位相结合提取人车混合疏散运动的实时轨迹和冲突行为；集成多智能体系统与社会力模型实现突发事件下人车混合复杂交通流的微观行为仿真与宏观特征模拟；结合群智能算法与多目标优化理论设计兼顾系统宏观效率与个体微观需求的应急疏散路径优化算法；在此基础上探讨突发事件下人车混合疏散的控制与疏导策略。研究成果可弥补现有研究对人车混合冲突行为刻画的不足，有助于突发事件演化规律的复杂性建模理论与方法研究，为人车混合疏散情景下的应急决策与疏导提供科学的理论基础和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 突发事件；混合交通；应急疏散；行为规律；时空图

英文摘要： China is one of the countries in which unexpected emergencies are happening with increasing frequency. Current emergency evacuation research mostly considers single crowd evacuation or vehicle evacuation, and has poor practical applicability because of lack of evacuation behaviors and evolving regulations of pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic. Therefore, aimed at the actual demand of pedestrian-vehicle mixed evacuation of China, the project will explore the evacuation behavior and guidance strategy of pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic under emergencies. Firstly, with the aid of psychological questionnaire design, behavior surveys, aspiration surveys, scenario experiments, the sophisticated social psychology and behavioral characteristics of pedestrian-vehicle mixed evacuation will be analyzed, and the real-time movement trails and conflict behaviors will be extracted by using video recognition and positioning techniques. Subsequently, by integrating multi-agent system with social force model, the microscopic behaviors and macroscopic characteristics of pedestrian-vehicle mixed complicated traffic flow will be simulated and imitated. Furthermore, by combining swarm intelligence with multi-objective optimization theory, the evacuation route optimization algorithm will be designed and improved, which could satisfy the

英文关键词： emergencies；mixed traffic；emergency evacuation；behavior law；spacetime diagrams