我国钢铁行业的减碳机制仿真研究

项目名称： 我国钢铁行业的减碳机制仿真研究

项目编号： No.41301643

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 高成康

作者单位： 东北大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 本项目采用"自下而上"的研究路线，将钢产量(外部)和单位钢碳负荷（内部）综合考虑，从行业层面上研究我国钢铁行业的减碳机制，既可避免其宏观政策研究的空洞性，又符合我国钢铁行业特点，研究包括：1）基于我国各类钢铁产品产量、消费结构、折旧量、使用年限等数据分析，建立钢产品使用寿命模型，揭示影响我国钢铁产品平均寿命关键因素的作用规律。2）基于钢产品平均寿命，弄清钢产量、在役钢量、碳负荷与经济之间的定量关系，并阐明宏观调控指标-单位GDP钢产量的变化机理及影响因素，进而构建在役钢量和钢产量模型。3）采用跟踪物质流方法，构建钢铁行业的碳素流网络，辨识其减碳关键点，建立钢铁行业层面上的碳负荷评价指标体系，提出我国钢铁行业碳负荷减排技术路线图。4）采用系统动力学方法，模拟、分析在满足经济发展对钢产品需求和完成减碳任务的双重约束下，探究我国钢铁行业的碳负荷减排潜力，为实现我国钢铁行业的持续发展提供理论基础。

中文关键词： 单位GDP钢产量；在役钢量；钢铁产品使用寿命；碳负荷评价；模拟仿真

英文摘要： A specific method of "bottom-up" route adopted, this project will study steel output and mechanism of reducing-carbon-emissions in Chinese steel industry from the industry level,comprehensively considering steel output and carbon dioxid emissions per unite of steel output. the route and methodology of study in the project can not only avoide the hollow of its maro-policy studied, but also accord with the actual characteristics of Chinese steel industry. Study content will mainly include: 1) in the study stage, firstly extensive field research and data collection will be excuted, and then the life-span model of steel product can be established baed on a vast scale of steel product's data in China,such as output, consumption structure,depreciation amount, life-span in service and so on.Thereafter, we will determine the average expectancy life-span of steel products in China and analyze the infulencing rule of law and some other factors.2) Based on life-span in service of steel product a quantitatie relationship between the steel output in service and economic growth can be ascertain, and the changing mechanism of steel output per GDP(Gross Domestic Product) which is an important indicators to control the harmony relationship between steel industry development and ecomomic development. By gist of above analyse

英文关键词： steel output of per GDP；teel amount in service；life-span of steel in service；assessment of carbon load；simulation and model