智能电网环境下我国电力工业碳排放控制关键问题研究

项目名称： 智能电网环境下我国电力工业碳排放控制关键问题研究

项目编号： No.71471061

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 孟明

作者单位： 华北电力大学（保定）

项目金额： 61万元

中文摘要： 电力工业的碳排放控制对于我国根据其责任和能力履行国际减排义务，实现经济与环境的可持续发展具有重要意义，而智能电网的发展为此提供了机遇。本项目将对智能电网环境下我国电力工业碳排放控制的几项关键内容进行研究，包括：第一，电力碳密度多维路径分解模型，用于电力碳密度变化驱动因素和滞后因素的定量识别；第二，基于成本演进方程的新能源电力动态上网电价模型，用于通过市场手段推动新能源电力的发展；第三，基于不确定整数规划的火电厂碳捕捉及存储设备安装决策模型，用于通过市场手段促进该设备的普及推广；第四，电力工业碳排放小样本情景预测模型，用于对我国电力工业在不同发展情景下的碳排放进行预测。上述模型将初步形成智能电网环境下我国电力工业碳排放控制分析系统，其实证研究结论将为我国在未来的国际碳排放控制协议中获得合理的减排份额提供依据，并为能源产业政策的调整提供借鉴。

中文关键词： 智能电网；电力工业；碳排放控制；新能源；碳捕捉及存储

英文摘要： The carbon emission control of electric power industry is important for China to fulfill its international emission reduction obligation according to its responsibility and capability, and realize the sustainable development of economy and environment. The development of smart grid will provide opportunities for it. This project will research on several key issues in carbon emission control of China's electric power industry supported by the smart grid, they are: 1) multi-dimensional roadmap decomposition model for electric power carbon intensity, which is used to quantitatively identify the driving and obstructing factors; 2) dynamic purchase price model of renewable energy electricity based on cost evolution equation, which is used to promote the development of renewable energy electricity by market mechanism; 3) carbon capture and storage equipment decision model in the coal-fired plants based on uncertain integer programming, which is used to popularize this equipment by market mechanism as well as 4) small-sample scenario forecasting model of carbon emissions in electric power industry, which is used to forecast the carbon emissions in China's electric power industry under different scenarios. The above models will preliminarily establish the carbon emission control analysis system of China's electric power industry supported by the smart grid. The empirical results of them will offer evidence for China to obtain the reasonable reduction share in the future international carbon emission control agreement, and also offer advices for adjusting China's energy-related industrial policies.

英文关键词： Smart Grid;Electric Power Industry;Carbon Emission Control;Renewable Energy;Carbon Capture and Storage