利用多源数据研究东南极百年尺度的极端温度事件

项目名称： 利用多源数据研究东南极百年尺度的极端温度事件

项目编号： No.41476164

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 海洋科学

项目作者： 谢爱红

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 98万元

中文摘要： 全球气候系统变暖，极端天气与气候事件发生的频率和强度增加。然而，南极地区极端气候事件的研究尚不多见。本项目基于东南极冰盖边缘至内陆的中山站、LGB69、EAGLE和Dome A气象站的实测的日最高/最低气温，对比研究多种再分析资料（NCEP-I、NCEP-2、20CRv2、CFSR、MERRA、ECMWF和JCDAS）在本地区适用性的最佳插值方法，探讨再分析资料刻画极端温度事件的准确性；通过时间序列较长的再分析资料20CRv2（1871年至今），与东南极地区及其附近的实测气象资料、雪/冰芯、表层雪、海冰、CRU、遥感资料相结合，研究东南极地区近百年以来的气候变化，探讨东南极地区极端温度事件的变化规律及其成因机制；本研究可填补东南极地区极端气候事件研究的空白，为将来减小南极地区近百年以来的气候变化模拟研究的不确定性，提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 东南极地区；极端气温事件；过程观测；模型模拟；多源数据

英文摘要： With global climate warming, weather extremes and climate extremes happen more frequently and intensely. Therefore, it is a focus for research on global climate change to further reduce the uncertainties in projections of centennial-scale climate and climate extremes in Antarctica. The project will aim to confirm the better method suitable to East Antarctica from many interpolation methods, and then to compare and assess the accuracy of daily temperature extremes from different reanalyses against in-situ observations. The daily temperature maximum and minimum of in-situ observations is from the automatic weather stations (AWS) at Zhongshan station, LGB69, PANDA-N, EAGLE, Dome A and PANDA-S, which are situated between the coast and the ice sheet summit in East Antarctica, along approximately 77E longitude. The reanalyses considered are NCEP/NCAR (referred to as NCEP-1), NCEP/DOE AMIP-II (NCEP-2), the second version of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv2), NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NASA MERRA, the ECMWF reanalysis (including ERA-40 and ERA Interim) and the real-time operation of the JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS). The interpolation methods suggested are Inverse Distance to a Power, Kriging, Minimum Curvature, Polynomial Regression, Bilinear Interpolation, Nearest Neighbor, Spline function, etc. Based on the AWS and reanalysis data with long time series, multi datasets are combined to study on the centennial-scale climate change, and on changes and mechanism of climate extremes in East Antarctica. The multi datasets referred here are from AWS observations in the neighboring regions, reanalyses, surface snow, ice/snow core, sea ice, CRU and remote sensing. With the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 models, the project estimates the climate change and climate extremes in East Antarctica. Building on the existing achievements in Antarctica, the project will establish a complex database for research on centennial-scale climate change in East Antarctica, and fill an important gap in research on centennial-scale climate change and climate extremes in East Antarctica. In addition, the project will reduce the uncertainties in projections of climate change and climate extremes in Antarctica.

英文关键词： East Antarctica;Temperature Extremes;Progress Observations;Model Simulation;Multisource Data