机场飞行区安全风险演化机理及预警仿真系统研究

项目名称： 机场飞行区安全风险演化机理及预警仿真系统研究

项目编号： No.71271163

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 罗帆

作者单位： 武汉理工大学

项目金额： 52万元

中文摘要： 机场飞行区关系到飞机起飞、降落和停放安全，是机场安全管理的重中之重。机场飞行区中人的不安全行为、设备和设施的不安全状态、环境的负面影响和管理中的安全漏洞，都可能导致不安全事件、事故征候或安全事故。从机场飞行区安全风险的分类和特征分析着手，运用结构方程模型验证风险因子的相关性，应用混沌理论、突变论探讨机场飞行区安全风险演化路径，提出安全风险的演化阶段和演化动力模型；采用BP神经网络、免疫算法、系统动力学理论和Agent仿真模型，构建机场飞行区安全风险预警仿真模型，对安全风险演化过程及预警机制进行系统模拟。将数值模拟与情景仿真相结合，基于Agent-SD模型，运用数据仓库技术和Arc GIS软件开发平台，开发机场飞行区安全风险预警仿真系统。研究旨在提高机场安全风险管理的系统性、针对性和有效性，进一步提升机场安全管理水平。

中文关键词： 机场飞行区；安全风险；演化机理；预警模型；仿真系统

英文摘要： Relating to the takeoff , landing and parking safety, the security management in the flight area of an airport is very important. The unsafe human behavior, the unsafe conditions of the equipments, the negative impact of the environment and the security vulnerabilities in the management in the flight area of an airport are likely to lead to unsafe events, signs of accidents or safety accidents.Starting from the classification and characteristics, correlation of risk factors of security risks in the flight area of an airport is validated by the structural equation model, the evolution path of security risks is analyzed based on chaotic theory and catastrophe theory, and the evolution stages and powers of security risks are anatomized. The early warning simulation models are built based on BP neural network, immune algorithm, system dynamics theory and Agent simulation model to simulate the evolution of security risks and early warning mechanisms systematically. Combining numerical simulation with scenario simulation, the early warning simulation development system is designed in the flight area of an airport based on Agent-SD model, using data warehouse technology and Arc GIS software development platform.The study aims to improve systematic, pertinent and effectiveness of security risks management of an airport

英文关键词： Flight area of an airport；Safety risks；Evolution mechanism；Early warning models；Simulation system