基于决策树模型的卫生应急预案风险分析技术与方法研究

项目名称： 基于决策树模型的卫生应急预案风险分析技术与方法研究

项目编号： No.71203051

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 康正

作者单位： 哈尔滨医科大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 复杂多变的现代社会,各种风险和危机无处不在,除了风险的不确定性外,没有什么是确定的。SARS、禽流感等一系列突发公共卫生事件突袭而至，唤醒了国人的危机意识，认识到应急预案编制的极端重要性。并提出构建以应急预案为核心，以"一案三制"为支撑的应急体系框架。然而，由于风险分析技术等预案编制核心技术和方法的缺失，使其成为影响卫生应急工作中有效开展的关键瓶颈之一。 本研究立足于我国卫生应急工作的现实需求，针对预案编制过程中存在的风险分析技术短板、问题及其产生原因和影响因素，紧紧围绕现实需求，研究和构建以风险识别、脆弱性分析、风险评估为核心内容的风险分析框架，在此基础上，综合运用决策树法、风险分析矩阵等方法，系统地研究和开发突发公共卫生事件风险分析的技术流程和方法，为提高卫生部门风险分析和预案编制能力提供技术支持。

中文关键词： 决策树；卫生应急；风险评估；技术；

英文摘要： In the complex and ever-changing modern society, risk is everywhere and has a strong uncertainty. SARS, bird flu and a series of public health emergencies, wake up the sense of crisis and recognise the extreme importance of the emergency plan formation, and propose to construct emergency system framework that the emergency plan is the core in the mode of "one plan and three systems". However, lack of risk analysis technology which as the core technology and methods in emergency plan formation, make it as one of the key bottlenecks that effectively impact health emergency. This study based on the practical needs of China's health emergency, focus on short board of the risk analysis technology, problems, causes and influencing factors of emergency plan formation, study to construct the framework of risk analysis which focus on risk identification, vulnerability analysis and risk appraisal, on this basis，integrated use Decision Tree, Risk Analysis Matrix and other methods to scientifically study and develop the technology processes and methods of public health emergency risk analysis, provide technical support for the health department in risk analysis and emergency plan formation.

英文关键词： Decision Tree；Healthy Emergency；Risk Assessment；Technology；