基于视频分析的高密度人群踩踏事故风险防控方法研究

项目名称： 基于视频分析的高密度人群踩踏事故风险防控方法研究

项目编号： No.71473147

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 翁文国

作者单位： 清华大学

项目金额： 68万元

中文摘要： 人群密集场所的踩踏事故具有发生突然、难以控制、诱发原因多等特点，一旦发生将造成严重的人员伤亡，研究高密度人群踩踏事故风险防控方法具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。本项目采用视频分析方法发展大场景下高密度人群运动特征的提取算法，并研究其运动特征的转变机理及临界条件，建立体现高密度人群运动特征的行人流模型；在此基础上，研究高密度人群运动过程的实时风险时空变化特征及人群踩踏事故的风险临界值，分析人群聚集活动的风险因素并量化其风险值；以风险评估结果为依据，提出基于行人流模型构建的踩踏事故情景的高密度人群踩踏事故的应急预案编制指南，及人群聚集活动安全方案指南。为降低人群聚集活动中人群踩踏事故风险，减少人员伤亡提供理论依据。进而为我国提高人群密集场所应急管理保障水平提供科学支撑。

中文关键词： 人群踩踏事故；视频分析；风险评估；应急预案

英文摘要： A stampede in a crowded place takes on the characteristics of sudden occurrence, difficult control and multiple induced reasons; and usually leads to severe casualties. It has scientific value and practical significance to study the risk prevention and control methods for stampede in highly dense crowd. In this project, an extraction algorithm for crowd motion characteristics in large-scale scene and with high density is developed, and its change mechanism and the corresponding critical condition are studied. A pedestrian dynamical model representing crowd motion characteristics is established. Based on the above research results, the space-time characteristics of real-time risk and its critical value for stampede are studied, and the risk factors of crowd activities are analyzed and the risk values are quantitated. With the risk evaluation results, the emergency plan guide for stampede in highly dense crowd based on the scenes developed by the pedestrian dynamical model is presented, and the safety scheme guide for crowd activities is provided. The research outcomes will provide theoretical basis to decrease stampede risk, and reduce the injuries and deaths in crowd activities; thus provide scientific support to enhance the emergency level for crowd places.

英文关键词： stampede;video analysis;risk evaluation;emergency plan