景观系统突变的级联效应研究

项目名称： 景观系统突变的级联效应研究

项目编号： No.41271197

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 徐驰

作者单位： 南京大学

项目金额： 70万元

中文摘要： 突变现象普遍存在于生态、环境和社会系统中，并对人类福祉产生深远影响。由于系统相互作用的复杂性，突变的触发机制和预警信号成为研究难点。景观作为复杂等级系统，其组成、结构和功能都可能表现突变特征；特定景观格局参量发生的突变可能在景观系统内和不同景观系统间发生作用传递，并最终影响到景观过程和功能，可称之为景观系统突变的级联效应。本项目以长江三角洲内典型景观为对象，利用3S技术、空间分析和时序分析等方法检测景观格局状态参量的突变现象，并通过对水生态系统的定位观测，研究陆源物质向水体的运移输入过程对格局参量突变的响应；在此基础上对不同状态参量的变化过程进行耦合分析，旨在揭示突变在景观系统内/间的作用传递路径、传递方式及其空间异质性和尺度效应，寻找景观系统突变的预警信号，阐明突变发生和传递的动力学机制，建立景观系统突变级联反应模型，以期深入理解景观演化规律，为景观管理和土地利用优化配置提供决策支持。

中文关键词： 突变点；多稳态；植被；城市景观；级联效应

英文摘要： Abrupt shift exists in a wide range of ecological, environmental and social systems. When abrupt shift takes place, it could produce profound impacts on human well-being. Trigger mechanisms and early-warning signals of abrupt shift are difficult to reveal because of complex system interactions. Landscapes, as complex hierarchical systems, can manifest abrupt shift in terms of compostion, structure and fucntion. The abrupt shift that occurs on some specific state variables characterizing landscape pattern is possibly transferred within and between the landscape systems, ultimately influencing landscape processes and functions. This phenomenon can be termed as cascading effect of abrupt shift in landscape systems. Targeting the representative landscapes in the Yangtze Delta, the present research project aims to detect the abrupt shift in the state variables of landscape pattern using the "3S" technology, spatial analysis and time series analysis approaches. Also, the landscape-level process that materials are trasport from land to water in response to the abrupt shift of pattern variables is to be studied through in-situ investigations of the aquatic ecosystems. By coupling the dynamic processes of different state variables, we attempts to reveal the transfer path and mode of abrupt shift within/between landscape

英文关键词： tipping point；alternative stable states；vegetation；urban landscape；cascading effect