灾害应急供应链中不确定与干扰下牛鞭效应风险弱化研究

项目名称： 灾害应急供应链中不确定与干扰下牛鞭效应风险弱化研究

项目编号： No.41471424

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 赵晗萍

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 自然灾害的应急需求通常是突然发生并且无法利用历史数据精确预测的，同时为了满足需求的应急供应是在紧急状态下临时构建的，需要在短时间调动大量人力物力资源，此外应急救助过程中常常发生各种的干扰，如次生灾害、道路损毁、供应中断等，这些因素都导致应急救助过程中的决策更加复杂。本项目研究自然灾害应急救助应急供应链需求信息传递与供应物资转移的网络关系，解析网络中需求信息和物资供给的驱动机理，并考虑相关主体追求的利益目标，构建应急供应链整体的运作与评估模型；重点辨析应急救助运作过程中可能面对的极端干扰因素，利用极端事件不确定性敏感指标法评估这些因素对应急供应链过程产生的风险后果；基于上述风险分析结果，建立以供给结构与信息传播为决策变量的应急供应链优化模型，利用鲁棒优化技术进行应急供应链的设计优化。本项目拓展了应急响应决策的理论与方法体系，不仅具有较高的学术价值，而且具有明显的实用价值。

中文关键词： 应急供应链；牛鞭效应；减轻风险；干扰；不确定性

英文摘要： Disaster emergency demands happen suddenly and can't be forecasted accurately, meanwhile emergency supply need to be built in short time against uncertainties and unexpected disruptions, so decision-making of emergency relief must ensure its effectiveness and robustness. This project researches demand information flow and supply material flow in emergency supply chain network, analysis that driving mechanism of supply material and demand information transformation, and set up operation and assessment model of emergency supply chain considering stockholders 'profits; it is important to discriminate extreme disruption factors through emergency relief processes, and assess risk of these factors using extreme event uncertainty sensitivity method; based on above result, we build up optimization model with variables of supply structure and information transformation, and design robust optimization algorithm to obtain satisfactory solution. It does have significance both on reality and science.

英文关键词： emergency supply chain;bullwhip effect;mitigation risk;disruption;uncertainty