火灾环境下大型邮轮人员疏散时间不确定性分析方法研究

项目名称： 火灾环境下大型邮轮人员疏散时间不确定性分析方法研究

项目编号： No.71503166

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 谢启苗

作者单位： 上海海事大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 大型邮轮体积庞大，结构复杂，区域封闭，载客量大，一旦发生火灾将会造成巨大的生命财产损失。人员疏散时间不确定性的处理是邮轮防火设计中的一个关键内容。本项目研究大型邮轮人员疏散时间不确定性分析方法。为提高不确定性分析的计算效率，本项目基于中心极限定理、泛函分析算子和稀疏多项式混沌展开提出人员疏散时间不确定性分析方法；研究响应时间、行走速度和人员荷载初始分布的不确定性共同影响下人员疏散时间的分布特性，结合变异系数量化参数的不确定性对其影响程度，考察安全系数随参数不确定性程度的变化规律；为找出不确定场景下最合适的疏散路径，基于“水力学”模型并结合Monte Carlo模拟和遗传算法建立不确定场景下人员疏散路径的规划模型，研究人员荷载初始分布不确定性下的疏散路径规划。本研究可提供人员疏散时间行为不确定性和场景不确定性的综合量化方法以及疏散路径的规划模型，从而为大型邮轮风险评估和防火设计提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 大型邮轮；火灾；人员疏散；不确定性分析；路径规划

英文摘要： Due to the bulky size, complex structures, relatively closed area, higher passenger load for large cruise ships, great casualties and property losses will be caused by a fire. The treatment of evacuation time uncertainty is a critical issue for fire protection design of large cruise ships, which is focused on in this project. To improve the computational efficiency, a method for uncertainty analysis of evacuation time is proposed based on the central limit theorem, functional analysis operators and sparse polynomial chaos expansion, which can be used to quantify the uncertainty of evacuation time caused by the randomness in occupant response time, walking speed and the initial distribution of occupant load. Moreover, based on the proposed method, the impact of uncertain parameters on evacuation time can be quantified by combining with the coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the safety factor and the level of uncertainty associated with stochastic variables can also be examined. Furthermore, in order to identify the most appropriate evacuation route under uncertainty, a model of the evacuation route planning is constructed based on the hydraulics model with the combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm, which can be used to plan the evacuation route under uncertain initial distributions of the occupant load for large cruise ships. The method for the combined quantification of evacuate time uncertainty with the consideration of stochastic human behavior and uncertain evacuation scenarios, and the model for the evacuation route planning can be achieved by this project, which can provide a theoretical basis for the risk assessment and fire protection design of large cruise ships.

英文关键词： Large cruise ships;Fire;Occupant evacuation;Uncertainty analysis;Path planning