基于系统动力学的卫生总费用仿真模拟与预测模型研究

项目名称： 基于系统动力学的卫生总费用仿真模拟与预测模型研究

项目编号： No.71473110

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李丽清

作者单位： 江西科技师范大学

项目金额： 58万元

中文摘要： 卫生总费用从筹资、分配和使用三个角度反映卫生资金不断循环往复的运动过程及社会结构转型、公共财政体制建设和医药卫生体制改革的发展轨迹。本课题紧扣卫生总费用与社会环境、经济发展、卫生政策、医疗需求等密切相关的特点，从学科交叉的视角组织研究团队，运用系统工程理论和方法综合分析卫生总费用影响因素并从多角度进行分类；借助系统动力学反馈动态复杂原理系统分析各因素的因果结构及作用机理，深入剖析卫生总费用过快增长的内在动因。在对常规预测方法综合对比的基础上，应用系统动力学预测方法，从理论与实证两方面进行可行性论证，建立卫生总费用变化趋势的系统动力学仿真模型，定量预测卫生总费用增长速度，卫生服务消费结构变化、卫生政策实施效果等要素的作用和影响。在预期产出方面，预测方法及模型将是该研究命题的突破，对卫生总费用增长速度的定量预测结果及其决定因素的量化测量，将是制订国家宏观卫生政策的重要依据。

中文关键词： 卫生总费用；系统动力学；预测模型

英文摘要： Health expenditure reflects the continuous process of health funds movement and the development of the transition of social structure, the construction of public financial system and the reform of medical and health care from three perspectives: health financing, the allocation and utilization of health funds. This study is based on the characteristic of health expenditure that health expenditure is closely related to social environment,economic development,health policy,etc. Our research team, which organized from the interdisciplinary viewpoint, comprehensively analyzed the influencing factors of health expenditure and classified those factors from multi-perspective by using systems engineering theory and approach. The study systematically analyzed the causal sturcture relationships and the mechanism of various influencing factors by SD feedback dynamic complexity analysis method and analyzed the internal factors of the rapidly growing health expenditure. Based on the comparison with conventional forcasting methods, the study demonstrated the feasibility in theory and practice by using the system dynamics forecasting methods. The study established the system dynamics forecast model of the trend of health expenditure to quantitively forcast the growth rate of health expenditure and the effect of the factors like the change of health service consumption structure, the evaluation of health policy, etc. In the expected outputs, the forecasting method and model will become the breakthrough of the study, and the quantitive forcasting results of the growth of health expenditure and the quantitive measurement of its decisive factors will be the important basis to make national macro health policy.

英文关键词： health expenditure;system dynamics;forecast model