恐怖组织网络动态演化与干预策略研究

项目名称： 恐怖组织网络动态演化与干预策略研究

项目编号： No.71473263

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 孙多勇

作者单位： 中国人民解放军国防科技大学

项目金额： 58万元

中文摘要： 本项目针对国内恐怖活动预警防范方法手段不足的现状，在前期研究的基础上，引入动态元网络理论和计算实验方法，将研究拓展到恐怖组织网络动态演化和干预策略计算实验新领域；以国内典型恐怖活动为背景，以公开信息为依据，从系列事件入手，确定多元要素分解规范，基于数据挖掘方法建立恐怖组织动态元网络模型；借助网络测度原理和纵向分析方法研究恐怖组织网络的动态结构特征，以恐怖组织网络结构变化为基础，探索建立反映恐怖组织网络变化的监测方法，揭示恐怖组织网络演化规律，为恐怖活动预警提供方法手段；将恐怖组织动态元网络模型与多智能体建模和计算实验相结合，建立基于Agent的恐怖组织网络动态演化仿真模型和干预政策计算实验框架，通过多维度组合政策想定的计算实验，探索政策干预的有效途径，为恐怖活动监测、预警和有效干预提供新的思路和理论依据。

中文关键词： 恐怖组织；动态元网络；多智能体建模；预警监测；计算实验

英文摘要： This project focuses on the shortage situation of methods for early warning against domestic terrorist activities. Based on the earlier studies, the research will be developed to the area of terrorist organization network dynamic evolution and intervention strategy computational experiment by introduction of dynamic meta-network theory and computational experiment method. Let the domestic typical terrorist activities as research background, and starting with the series of terror events, the multiple factor decomposition specification for events is given. According to public information, the terrorist organization dynamic meta-network models are built by using data mining method. With the aid of network measure principle and longitudinal analysis method to study the dynamic structure characteristics of the terrorist network, and on the basis of the terrorist network structure change, the monitoring method to detect the actual changes of terrorist network will be explored, which will illustrate terrorist organization network evolution lows, and provide early warning method for terrorist activities. The Agent-based terrorist organization network dynamic simulation model and intervention strategy computational experiment framework will be established by the combination of terrorist organization dynamic meta-network model, Agent-based modeling and computational experiment method, and the effectiveness of the intervention strategy are evaluated by multidimensional combination scenarios policy intervention computational experiments. The research can provide new methods and theoretical basis for terror activities monitoring, early warning and intervention.

英文关键词： Terrorist Organization;Dynamic Meta-Network;Multi-Agent Modeling;Early Warning Monitoring;Computational Experiment