农村气候脆弱性综合评价与自主治理模式研究

项目名称： 农村气候脆弱性综合评价与自主治理模式研究

项目编号： No.71473241

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李颖明

作者单位： 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 作为农业大国，减小农村气候脆弱性，提高气候变化适应能力事关中国粮食安全与和谐社会进程。本研究将围绕区域农村气候脆弱性的综合评价，运用生态经济模型与生计分析框架进行区域农业气候变化的敏感性-适应性测度，基于ArcGIS叠加分析方法合并数据特征，将农业气候敏感性数据特征和适应性数据特征合并，识别农村气候变化脆弱性综合评价的典型区域；该研究对农业气候变化关键要素相似的地区进行分级分类，运用DEA模型测度农村应对气候变化的要素组合效率，从农村应对气候变化相关要素的组合模式及模式优化角度对农村气候脆弱性进行区域比较分析；该项目将建立脆弱性评估与治理模式的内在联系，从公共资源治理的角度探讨农村应对气候变化的自主治理制度选择，构建自主治理结构，提出我国农村应对气候变化的政策建议。该研究使气候脆弱性评价不仅是气候变化影响程度的衡量，也是气候变化应对模式优化的依据，为农村应对气候变化提供理论支撑。

中文关键词： 农村气候脆弱性；综合评价；区域比较；自主治理

英文摘要： As big agriculture country, reducing rural climate vulnerability and improving ability to adapt to climate change are important to China's food secruity and harmonious society building. Concentrating on comprehenshive assessment of rural climate vulnerability, the research will measure sensitivity-adaptability of regional rural climate change based on the Ecological-Economic model and sustainable livelihoods approach. Applying ArcGIS overlay analysis, the research will combine the data characters of sensitivity and adaptability and identify typical regions of rural climate change. The research will classify typical regions according to key factors similarity of rural climate change, measure the efficiency of factors combination with DEA（Data Envelopment Analysis） model, and then conduct comparative analysis of regional rural climate vulnerability from the angle of combination model of key factors and optimization methods. The research will establish the connection of vulnerability assessment and governance model, explore self-governance system and governance structure, and put forward the policy suggestion for combating climate change in rural areas. The objectives of research is to make climate vulnerability assessment as basis of dealing with climate change, not only as measure of climate change impaction. The research will provide theoretical support for combating climate change in rural area.

英文关键词： Rural climate vulnerability;Comprehensive assessment;Regional comparison;Self-governance