基于潜在火环境的森林火险等级遥感评估方法研究

项目名称： 基于潜在火环境的森林火险等级遥感评估方法研究

项目编号： No.41201441

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 刘文亮

作者单位： 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 森林火灾危害严重，做好森林火险等级评估工作对火灾的预测预防以及扑救具有重要的意义。由于林区内气象站点分布稀疏，基于气象数据的森林火险等级评估结果难以详细反映火险的空间分布变化，而当前基于遥感数据的森林火险等级评估研究在火险评估指标体系和评估方法上都有待完善。本研究以我国森林火灾最严重的大兴安岭地区为研究区，以遥感数据和历史火灾记录数据为主要数据源，分析选择对火灾发生发展响应敏感的遥感可反演指标，建立森林火险评估指标体系。将历史火灾事件作为案例，利用火险评估指标描述火灾发生前的潜在火环境，借鉴案例推理思想构建一套森林火险等级评估方法。本研究中森林火险等级评估指标体系的建立可以为国际上的同类研究提供参考，提出的森林火险等级评估模型可以在一定程度上克服现有火险评估方法的不足。

中文关键词： 森林火险等级；遥感；案例推理；潜在火环境相似性；雷电密度

英文摘要： Forest fires cause serious damage on to socio-economic and public property, so fire risk assessment is much useful for forecasting, preventing and fighting fires. The fire risk assessment result based on meteorological station data is difficult to show the details of spatial variation of forest fire risk, because the meteorological observation stations are rare in forest area. However, the forest fire risk assessment methods based on remote sensing data need to be improved on forest risk assessment index and assessment methods. In this research, we will select remote sensing and historical fire events as the main data source. The study area is located in DaXingAn Mountain which is one of the most serious forest fires occurrence areas. We will analyze and select the fire risk assessment index which can be retrieved from remote sensing data and are sensitive to fire occurrence as the fire risk assessment index system. We will express the potential fire environment by the fire risk assessment index and take the historical fire events as cases. An innovative fire risk assessment method will be established based on case-reasoning method. The established forest fire risk assessment index system will provide reference for international similar research and the proposed assessment method will overcome the weaknesses of

英文关键词： Forest fire risk rating；Remote sensing；Case-based reasoning；similarity of potential fire environment；Lightning density