新疆布鲁氏菌病传播机理的动力学模型和疾病预防控制研究

项目名称： 新疆布鲁氏菌病传播机理的动力学模型和疾病预防控制研究

项目编号： No.11301451

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 徐加波

作者单位： 新疆医科大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 布鲁氏菌病或称地中海弛张热是由布鲁氏菌引起的人畜共患性全身传染病，此病多发于农牧区，是新疆一种严重影响人类健康和畜牧业生产的地方病之一。本项目旨在建立并研究新疆地区布鲁氏菌病传播的动力学模型。通过研究新疆地区布鲁氏菌病的传播机理，建立模拟布鲁氏菌病传播的动力学数学模型。研究模型的阈值条件、无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性、唯一性和全局稳定性、周期解的存在性和稳定性、疾病的持久和灭绝等动力学行为。同时，考察人为干预对疾病传播的影响。新疆是该传染病的多发地区，结合近几年布鲁氏菌病的实际发病数据，对模型的参数进行估计，计算新疆地区布鲁氏菌病的传播的基本再生数，进而可以预估新疆该疾病的流行状况，为疾控部门采取合理预防措施提供切实有效的方法和理论依据。

中文关键词： 布鲁氏菌病；动力学；基本再生数；；

英文摘要： Brucellosis or Mediterranean remittent fever is a zoonotic systemic infection disease caused by Brucella. The disease mainly happens in agricultural and pastoral areas. It is a serious endemic disease which impacts on both the health of human and animal husbandry production in Xinjiang. This project aims to establish and study the dynamical model of brucellosis in Xinjiang. By investigating the propagation mechanism of brucellosis in Xinjiang, dynamic mathematical model is established to simulate the spread of brucellosis. The dynamical behavior of the model, including the threshold condition, the existence , uniqueness and global stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium, the existence and global stability of periodic solution, the permanence and extinction etc. will be investigated. At the same time, we will study the influence of manual intervention to the spread of disease. Xinjiang is a multiple area of the infectious disease, combining the incidence data in recent years with brucellosis, we can estimate the parameters in the model and then calculate the basic reproduction number of communication of brucellosis in Xinjiang , which can estimate the prevalence of the disease in Xinjiang. Finally, we can provide effective method and theory basis for reasonable preventive measures to diseas

英文关键词： Brucellosis；dynamic；Basic reproduction number；；