基于Bayesian网络的坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警控制机理研究

项目名称： 基于Bayesian网络的坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警控制机理研究

项目编号： No.51274089

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 矿业工程

项目作者： 杨玉中

作者单位： 河南理工大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 我国超过80%的瓦斯灾害和煤与瓦斯突出有关，坚硬顶板条件矿井发生的煤与瓦斯突出占有较高的比重，因此对坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警系统控制机理进行研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本项目运用预警理论和可拓理论等多学科交叉理论，采用理论分析、实验室试验、计算机仿真和现场试验，对坚硬顶板条件下瓦斯涌出（突出）与主要影响因素之间的关系、煤与瓦斯突出预兆信息和突出之间的量化关系以及预警系统的运行机制和监控机制进行研究。以期确定出坚硬顶板条件下瓦斯涌出（突出）与主要影响因素的综合关系；提出基于粗糙集-可拓模式识别的煤与瓦斯突出预兆信息甄别方法；建立突出预兆信息与突出之间的量化关系；构建基于Bayesian网络-可拓理论的突出风险评价动态模型；提出突出预警系统运转模式、运行机制和监控机制；进一步完善突出预控对策库；建立突出预警系统的组织模型。从而为煤炭企业成功实施煤与瓦斯突出预警系统提供理论支持。

中文关键词： 煤与瓦斯突出；预警；控制机理；综合关系；运行机制

英文摘要： Over 80 percent of gas disasters were concerned with coal and gas outburst. The proportion of coal and gas outburst occurred in the hard roof coalmines was higher than others. It was very theoretically and practically significant to research on control mechanism of coal and gas outburst early warning system on hard roof condition. Many theories such as early warning theory, extension theory, et al. were used in the study. Theoretical analysis, laboratory experiment, computer simulation and field experiment were adopted. The relationship between gas emission or outburst and influencing factors, the quantitative relationship between outburst omen and outburst, operational mechanism and monitoring and control mechanism would be deeply researched. Comprehensive relationship between gas emission or outburst and primary influencing factors on hard roof condition will be ascertained. Discrimination method of outburst omen based on rough set-extensible pattern recognition will be put forward. Quantitative relationship between outburst omen and outburst will be built up. Dynamic evaluation model used to outburst risk analysis based on Bayesian network-extension theory will be established. Operational mode, operational mechanism and monitoring and control mechanism will be put forward. Countermeasures to prevent outburst

英文关键词： coal and gas outburst；early-warning；control mechanism；synthetic relationship；operating mechanism