基于序贯决策的高堆石坝施工度汛风险时空耦合控制机理研究

项目名称： 基于序贯决策的高堆石坝施工度汛风险时空耦合控制机理研究

项目编号： No.51509143

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 刘潋

作者单位： 三峡大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 高堆石坝多集中在高山峡谷地区，洪枯水位和流量变化幅度大，施工填筑量大、填筑周期长。施工度汛风险控制是确保大坝汛期安全经济施工的关键。本项目拟针对高堆石坝施工度汛风险时空耦合及其过程控制这一关键科学问题，以度汛风险为研究对象，建立基于实测洪水序列的风险率计算模型；从时空角度提炼度汛过程中的挡水风险-填筑进度-断面高程间的耦合关系，推导大坝填筑时空的概率分布及风险动态演进数学表达，揭示高堆石坝施工度汛风险的时序变化特征和分布规律；针对度汛过程的随机动态特性，提炼其马尔科夫性，构建基于马尔科夫过程的度汛序贯决策模型；采用面向对象的建模语言图形化描述风险控制参数体系，构建序贯决策驱动下施工度汛风险自适应控制模型，揭示高堆石坝度汛风险时空耦合控制机理。在此基础上对高堆石坝施工度汛风险控制过程进行仿真分析。研究成果可为高堆石坝施工度汛风险实时控制提供理论依据，为高堆石坝施工度汛动态决策提供方法支撑。

中文关键词： 高堆石坝；施工度汛；风险控制；序贯决策；时空耦合

英文摘要： In the construction process of high rock-fill dams, large variable of flood water level and flow、long construction period and huge filling volume due to dam site area between high mountains and deep valleys. Therefore, flood risk control for high rock-fill dams is the key to ensure dam safety and economic construction in flood period .This research aims at the key scientific problems of flood risk space-time coupling and control process of high rock-fill dam. Firstly, risk analysis model of flood handling based on observed flood series is built. The coupling effect among water retaining risk、filling schedule and section height is distilled in the view of space-time, then probability distribution function of filling schedule and height is derived as well as mathematical expressions of dynamic evolution of risk. Temporal variation characteristic and flood risk distribution of high rock-fill dams is revealed. Secondly, sequential decision model for flood handling based on Markov process is put forward. Next, Risk control parameter system is obtained by united modeling language based on oriented-object. Finally, risk adaptive control model is set up to reveal risk space-time coupling control mechanism for flood handling during high rock-fill dam construction. Moreover, simulation is carried out for analyzing risk control process. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for real-time risk control and method for assistant dynamic decision-making in the high rock-fill construction process.

英文关键词： high rock-fill dam;flood handling during construction;risk control;sequential decision;time-space coupling