我国国民经济中隐含石油的测算、路径分解与出口结构优化研究

项目名称： 我国国民经济中隐含石油的测算、路径分解与出口结构优化研究

项目编号： No.71303258

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 唐旭

作者单位： 中国石油大学（北京）

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 近年来，在我国石油对外依存度迅速提高、国内石油稳产压力持续增加、石油进口成本和代价不断加大的背景下，我国充分利用和管理好石油资源已经十分必要和紧迫。本项目基于隐含石油的视角，综合应用投入产出理论、决策理论等，全面核算我国国民经济中的隐含石油消费，研究其规模与结构的纵向历史变化和横向国际对比，对隐含石油在国内产业间和国外国家间流向的路径进行分解，分析隐含石油的国内外流向图；在定量研究我国隐含石油出口对石油对外依存度、宏观经济影响的基础上，建立隐含石油出口结构优化的多目标决策模型，研究中国可承受代价下隐含石油的最大出口降低量、优先下降行业及下降量排序；在此基础上，基于隐含石油"节流"的国内视角和"开源"的国际视角，对我国积极管理国民经济中隐含石油消费的对策进行研究。课题着眼于国家能源发展"十二五"规划中与石油相关的迫切战略需求，为我国更好地管理石油消费提供隐含石油视角下的信息支持和决策参考。

中文关键词： 隐含石油；投入产出分析；路径分解；多目标决策；贸易结构优化

英文摘要： In recent years, China's dependence on foreign oil has increased rapidly, while the cost and price of oil imports and the pressure on stable production of domestic oil have increased continuously. Under such background, it has been very necessary and urgent for China to effectively utilize and manage its oil resources. From the perspective of embodied oil, and base on input-output theory, decision theory and so on, this subject plans to comprehensively calculate the embodied oil consumption in China's national economy, study historic changes and international comparisons of its scale and structure, decompose the flow path of embodied oil in domestic industries and foreign countries, and analyze the flow diagram of embodied oil; quantitatively evaluate the impact of embodied oil export on China's dependence on foreign oil and China's macro economy, and based on it, establish a multi-objective decision-making model for structure optimization of embodied oil export, and under consideration of China's affordable price, study the maximum decreased amount of embodied oil export and the ordination of the preferentially industries for embodied oil decreasing and the decreased amount; based on the research above, study the ways of actively managing embodied oil consumption in China's national economy from the perspective

英文关键词： Embodied Oil；Input-Output Analysis；Path Decomposition；Multi-objective Decision；Trade Structure Optimization