基于案例推理集成的区域能源安全外生警源识别与预警研究

项目名称： 基于案例推理集成的区域能源安全外生警源识别与预警研究

项目编号： No.71301181

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 胡健

作者单位： 重庆理工大学

项目金额： 21.7万元

中文摘要： 当前我国区域能源安全问题凸显，区域能源中断事件频发，严重制约了地区经济和社会的发展。项目正是针对这一现实问题提出区域能源安全外生警源的概念，并以外生警源的识别与预警为研究对象，开展外生警源的识别与预警的理论、方法及其应用研究。项目通过区域能源安全外生警源内涵界定、基础属性及外生警源案例特征选择和表达等基本理论研究，构建区域能源安全外生警源的识别与预警的整体框架。在该框架下，充分考虑区域能源安全问题的的突发性、因素不确定性、模型难以建立等特性，融合案例推理、集成学习和规则挖掘等方法，构建基于案例推理集成的区域能源安全外生警源的识别与预警方法。在此基础上，以西部地区能源安全外生警源识别及预警为例，通过实例研究，验证外生警源识别及预警模型的有效性和实际应用价值，进而为地方政府制定相应的能源安全应对措施和能源战略提供科学合理的量化依据。

中文关键词： 能源安全；外生警源；识别方法；案例推理；预警系统

英文摘要： China's regional energy security problems are prominent at present, and regional energy interruption events happen frequently, which seriously restricted the economic and social development in the region. To solve these problems, the project puts forward the concept of external crisis origin on regional energy security, and considers the identification and early warning of external crisis origin as the research object to make a study on its theory, methods and their application. Based on the basic theory research on the connotation definition of the external crisis origin of regional energy security, basic properties and exogenous source case feature selection and expression, this project establishes the framework of the external crisis origin identification and early warning of regional energy security. In this framework, considering the characteristics on regional energy security, including the sudden, factors uncertainty, and difficulty to establish model, the project establishes the method on the external crisis origin identification and early warning on regional energy security. This framework integrates many methods, including case-based reasoning, ensemble learning and rule data mining. On this basis, taking an example as the western regions, this project makes a practical study to validate that this mode

英文关键词： Energy security；Exogenous source；Recognition method；Case-based reasoning；Early warning system