基于消费者行为反应的家庭能源回弹效应生成机理及其政策引导

项目名称： 基于消费者行为反应的家庭能源回弹效应生成机理及其政策引导

项目编号： No.71503039

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 陈洪涛

作者单位： 东南大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 提高能源效率被认为是当前实现节能减排、减缓温室效应的首要政策选项，但是大量数据表明，能源效率的提高不但没有降低能源消费，反而由于消费者行为的改变增加了能源消费，产生了逆向的“能源回弹效应”，即能源效率提高节约的能源会被消费者行为改变产生的新的能源需求抵消掉。因此，环境政策有必要统筹考虑能源回弹效应的影响，并考虑能效提高和用户行为改变的交互作用。本课题以计划行为理论为基础，从消费者行为反应的角度，设计我国家庭能源消费者对环境政策的行为反应调查问卷，采用结构方程模型和计量经济方法，构建我国家庭能源回弹效应的综合测度模型；从行为意愿类因素、行为能力类因素、外部情景类因素、家庭特征类因素和人口统计类因素五个方面，分析造成家庭能源消费回弹的影响因素和路径关系，并提出科学引导家庭能源消费行为的政策建议。通过上述研究不仅可以深化能源管理的理论与方法，而且可以为我国能源政策的制定提供决策参考。

中文关键词： 回弹效应；能源效率；能源消费；能源政策

英文摘要： Energy efficiency increase is the primary policy to realize saving energy and reduction of green-house effect，but has the possibility to cause energy rebound effect, which means the expected beneficial impacts from energy efficiency increase are partially offset by the increased energy demand resulting from consumer behavior changed, price effect, income effect and the economy-wide effect. As a result, energy consumption would increase other than decrease. Based on the theory of planned behavior, from the perspective of consumer behavior reaction, we will design questionnaires about what household energy resources consumers’ response to environmental policy. We will use structural equation modeling (SEM) and econometric analytical methods; build the measure model of household energy rebound effect. From the perspectives of behavioral intention factor, disposing capacity factor, external situational factors, family factors and demographic factors, we will analyze which factors and how they can influence household energy consumption rebound. After that, we will make suggestions how to scientifically guide household energy consumption behaviors. This research not only deepens the theory and method of energy management but also provides reference to energy policies of China.

英文关键词： rebound effect;energy efficiency;energy consumption;energy policy