异质性视角下居民家庭消费的碳排放机理及其低碳导控机制研究

项目名称： 异质性视角下居民家庭消费的碳排放机理及其低碳导控机制研究

项目编号： No.71473113

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 贾俊松

作者单位： 江西师范大学

项目金额： 59万元

中文摘要： 居民家庭消费碳排放机理及其低碳导控机制这一科学问题近年来备受关注，但迄今仍有较多分歧，且常忽略异质性。故本项目以两个有着明显差异的部分南昌市及都昌县区为例，探讨异质性视角下家庭消费碳排放特征、路径依赖与锁定机理及相应的低碳导控解锁机制。先梳理前人的家庭碳排放核算研究进展，结合区域异质性，科学构建它们各自的居民家庭碳排放核算框架、方法与模型并完成具体计算。再根据问卷调查及其他社会经济统计数据，用计量经济学和数理统计等多种理论模型分析这两地家庭消费碳排放的影响因素、路径依赖及碳锁定特征与机理。在此基础上，结合政府减排承诺目标，构建它们家庭消费低碳转型的导控对策机制。之后，结合遗传算法与神经网络等计算智能，采用多目标多约束规划及系统动力学模型对低碳导控机制作用下两地家庭消费碳排放的轨迹进行规划模拟，并对模拟结果进行比较优化，最终得出两地各自可操作且有实践指导性意义的家庭低碳消费导控对策路径。

中文关键词： 居民家庭消费；碳排放机理；路径依赖；低碳导控策略；异质性视角

英文摘要： This scientific problem, carbon emission mechanism and its low-carbon controlling tactics of household consumption, has attracted much attention in recent years, but, so far, there are still inconsistent conclusions in the studies related to this issue, and people often ignore the impact of the heterogeneity. So, taking the two regions (part of Nanchang City and part of Duchang County, which have obvious differences) as an example, we will identify their carbon emissions' characteristics, path locking mechanism and corresponding low-carbon controlling or unlocking tactics of the household consumption from the perspective of the heterogeneity in this project. First, we will scientifically construct the accounting method and model of the carbon emission from household consumption under their different consumption patterns by combining the regional heterogeneity with the previous advances in accounting of household consumption, respectively, then, we will complete the carbon emissions' computation of the case regions. Second, based on the questionnaire survey and other social-economic statistical data, we will analyze the carbon emissions' driving force arising from household consumption, the character and mechanism of path dependence and carbon locking, by using a variety of theoretical models from both econometrics and mathematical statistics. Third, based on these results above, we will construct the guiding and controlling policy mechanism of low carbon transition for household consumption by combining with the relevant governmental commitments. Forth, combining genetic algorithm with neural network and other computational intelligence, we will complete the planning and simulation of the household carbon emissions' trajectories in the two regions under the effect of low-carbon controlling mechanism by using the multi-objective and multi-constraint programming model and system dynamics' model. Finally, we will get the controlling countermeasures and ways of low-carbon household consumption of the two regions by comparison and optimization, which are specific, operable, and have a practically guiding significance.

英文关键词： household consumption;carbon emission mechanism;path dependence;low-carbon controlling tactics;under the perspective of heterogeneity