关联基础设施系统的弹性评估

项目名称： 关联基础设施系统的弹性评估

项目编号： No.51208223

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 欧阳敏

作者单位： 华中科技大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 基础设施系统如电力、供水与通信系统等，为社会生产与居民生活提供基本服务，支撑经济发展并保证人民生活质量。然而，这些系统并非独立存在，而是相互关联，使得单个基础设施内的局部故障不仅会在系统内扩散，还会蔓延至与其关联的其它系统，对区域乃至整个国家的经济和人民生活造成严重影响。目前，多数研究主要关注关联基础设施系统灾后连锁故障过程的建模，忽视了系统恢复过程的建模。两者的综合考虑引出了弹性的概念，强调系统对各种危害的抵抗性、适应性以及从破坏中恢复的能力。本课题拟设计关联基础设施系统灾后连锁故障过程中系统状态变化的有效计算方法，建立关联系统灾后的协调恢复过程模型，进而提出关联基础设施系统弹性的评估方法，并以多个实际关联系统为案例，验证并完善弹性评估框架。本项研究不仅能丰富复杂网络、复杂系统的研究方法和内容，还能为我国基础设施系统的改进与保护提供理论依据，为实现弹性中国打下基础。

中文关键词： 基础设施系统；关联；弹性评估；连锁故障；灾后恢复

英文摘要： Infrastructure systems, such as power systems, water supply systems, telecommunication systems and so on, provide essential services that support economic prosperity and quality of life. However, these systems are not alone, but interdependent at multiple levels so that small failures in one infrastructure system can result in cascading failures within it and across other systems, largely impacting the regional or national economic systems as well as people's life. Currently, most of research mainly focus on the modeling of cascading failures among interdependent infrastructure systems, and ignore the modeling on sytems' restoration processes. Full consideration of both aspects is pertinent to the term "resilience", which is defined as the joint ability of infrastructure systems to resist any possible hazards, absorb initial damage, and recover to normal operation. This project intends to design a computationally efficient method to analyze the cascading failures of interdependent infrastructure systems immediately after a disruptive event, establish a post-disaster restoration model of interdepedent infrastructure systems in a cooperated fashion, and then propose a method to estimate the resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems. Taking several real systems as test-beds, the proposed resilience framew

英文关键词： Infrastructure Systems；Interdependency；Resilience Assessment；Cascading Failures；Post-disaster Restoration