轨道交通车站乘客应急疏散行为建模及过程仿真研究

项目名称： 轨道交通车站乘客应急疏散行为建模及过程仿真研究

项目编号： No.71271153

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 徐瑞华

作者单位： 同济大学

项目金额： 53万元

中文摘要： 本项目以安全、有序、高效地进行轨道交通车站乘客应急疏散为背景，运用环境心理学、社会行为学理论，分析乘客应急疏散的心理和行为特点，研究应急疏散过程中乘客间的相互影响以及设施设备、引导信息对应急疏散的效果；运用粒子物理、多智能体仿真理论和方法，建立应急疏散过程中乘客的从众、排他、原路返回、退避、沿墙和趋光等行为的疏散仿真模型；研究建立基于事件的多行为乘客应急疏散集成仿真模型，提出各种疏散行为的量化标准；研究模型的参数标定和验证方法，基于现场调查、视频分析等采集乘客行为特征指标；研发突发事件条件下轨道交通车站乘客应急疏散仿真原型系统；基于突发事件特征，研究仿真场景的设计方法，提出基于多场景仿真的应急疏散效果评价及应急疏散预案优化方法。本项目的研究成果对提高应急疏散预案的有效性、实用性以及应急疏散的效率，保障运营安全具有重要的理论意义和实践指导作用。同时，研究成果也可适用于其它类型的人员应急疏散。

中文关键词： 轨道交通车站；应急疏散；乘客行为；计算机仿真；

英文摘要： Against the background of safe, orderly and efficient rail transit station passenger emergency evacuation, this project applies environmental psychology, social behavior theory to analyze the psychological and behavioral characteristics of the emergency evacuated passengers, the interactions between passengers as well as the effect of station facilities and broadcast information on passengers during evacuation. The theories of particle physics and multi-agent simulation are used to develop the evacuation simulation models for behaviors of following, exclusive, backtrack, retreat and evacuation along the wall and photo taxis. The integrated simulation model based on incident is established for passenger emergency behaviors with various quantitative criteria of emergency behaviors. The method for model parameter calibration and verification is investigated based filed surveys and video analysis. An emergency evacuation simulation prototype system is developed and simulation scenario setting methods is designed, upon which developed are emergency evacuation effectiveness assessment and emergency preplan making optimization. This project embraces theoretical and practical benefits in improving the effectiveness and efficiency of preplans as well as ensuring operational security. In addition, the findings of this stu

英文关键词： Rail transit station；Emergency evacuation；Passenger behavior；Computer simulation；