订单农业供应链中农户供应失效风险应对策略及应用——以云南普洱茶和蔬菜订单农业供应链为例

项目名称： 订单农业供应链中农户供应失效风险应对策略及应用——以云南普洱茶和蔬菜订单农业供应链为例

项目编号： No.71462024

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 税文兵

作者单位： 昆明理工大学

项目金额： 32万元

中文摘要： 订单农业供应链中频繁发生的农户供应失效，不仅增加供应链运营成本，而且降低供应链的稳定性和可靠性，不利于我国农业产业化的实现。然而，现有的供应失效管理研究，大多以工业领域的供应链为对象，缺乏有效应对订单农业供应链中农户供应失效的策略。项目将农户供应失效分为农业气象灾害和农户故意违约两种情况，提出基于农产品供应基地的多源供应策略和针对易长时间存储农产品的多源供应+库存组合策略，研究两种策略下农产品供应基地的位置、数量、规模、与农产品加工点的关系、农产品库存位置和库存量的决策方法，定量分析农产品价格波动、龙头企业风险偏好以及农产品存储后价值变化对两种策略的影响，并以云南普洱茶和蔬菜订单农业供应链为例论证两种策略的有效性和可行性。项目的研究旨在提高订单农业供应链应对农户供应失效风险能力的同时，又不过多地牺牲供应链的日常运营成本，对完善订单农业供应链管理理论，促进订单农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。

中文关键词： 订单农业供应链；农户供应失效；应对策略；多源供应；库存控制

英文摘要： The supply disruption of farmers occurs frequently in contract-farming supply chains.This dose not only increases the supply chain operating costs, but also reduces the stability and reliability of the supply chain.So, it is also bad to the realization of China's agricultural industrialization. However, the researches on supply disruption management mostly take industrial supply chain for the objects and lack effective response strategies to the supply disruption of farmers in contract-farming supply chains. The agro-meteorological disasters and intentional breach of contract farmers both can result to the supply disruption of farmers. The multi-source supply strategies based on agricultural supply bases and multi-source supply + inventory portfolio strategies for agricultural products which can easily store for long time was designed in this project. How to decide the locations, numbers, sizes, the relationship with agricultural processing point of agricultural supply bases,the locations and quantity of inventory for agricultural products was researched. The impact on the two strategies of the fluctuations in agricultural products prices, the risk appetite of the leading enterprises and the change of value of agricultural products after storing was also analyzed quantitatively. The effectiveness and feasibility of two strategies were demonstrated by using Pu'er Tea and vegetables contract-farming supply chain in Yunnan. This project aimed at improving the capacity for dealing with the risk of supply disruption of farmers of contract-farming supply chains without sacrificing too much of the daily operating costs of the supply chain.This research is important to improve contract-farming supply chains management theory and promote sustainable development of contract-farming supply chains.

英文关键词： Contract-farming Supply Chain;Supply Disruption of Farmer;Strategies;Multi-sources Supply;Inventory Control