基于性能退化数据的航天产品小子样可靠性评估方法研究

项目名称： 基于性能退化数据的航天产品小子样可靠性评估方法研究

项目编号： No.11202011

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 王治华

作者单位： 北京航空航天大学

项目金额： 28万元

中文摘要： 航天产品具有系统复杂、造价昂贵、可靠性高、寿命长等特点，很难通过寿命试验和加速寿命试验获得足够的失效寿命数据，有时还会出现极少甚至零失效的现象，这对于以失效寿命数据为分析对象的传统可靠性理论是一个巨大挑战，而此时性能退化数据可作为航天产品可靠性评估的重要信息源，为航天产品可靠性评估提供了可行途径。 本项目以当前航天产品可靠性评估为背景，以小子样可靠性、随机过程、性能退化及加速寿命试验分析等理论为基础，对基于性能退化过程的航天产品小子样可靠性评估方法进行系统研究，内容涵盖单状态性能退化过程可靠性分析、多状态性能退化曲线整体测试、试验验证和工程实例分析三个层面，具体包括：性能退化数据确定性和随机性规律分析，单状态性能退化过程建模及可靠性分析，多状态性能曲线整体估计，结合试验研究和实例分析验证和完善项目研究成果，预期为航天产品小子样可靠性评估提供新的基础理论和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 性能退化；可靠性分析；小子样；复杂系统；独立增量过程

英文摘要： Reliability assessment of aerospace products with traditional theory usually meets challenges. The reason is that the traditional theory is built on the basis of failure data analysis, but adequate failure life data for aerospace products are hardly obtained through life test and accelerated life test, sometimes very few failure data and even with zero failue data appear. This is caused by aerospace product characteristics of high system complexity, enormous/escalating cost, high reliability and long life. However, as an alternative important life information source, performance degradation data could be utilized in these cases to assess the reliablity of aerospace products. In this background, this project is to systematically investigate the small sample reliability assessment method based on the performance degradation process of aerospace products, with basic theory of small sample reliability, stochastic process, performance degradation and accelerated life test analysis. The study will cover three levels, which are respectively single-state performance degradation process reliability analysis, multi-state performance degradation process reliability analysis, experimental verification and engineering application. Firstly, the deterministic and stochastic law of performance degradation data is to be analyzed

英文关键词： performance degradation；reliability analysis；small sample size；complex system；independent increment process