基于元胞自动机的城市洪水-人群疏散耦合建模方法

项目名称： 基于元胞自动机的城市洪水-人群疏散耦合建模方法

项目编号： No.41471341

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 李毅

作者单位： 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所

项目金额： 90万元

中文摘要： 本项目采用元胞自动机来对包含人文（人群疏散）和自然（洪水演进）地理要素的复杂地理过程进行耦合建模与分析。通过研究城市洪水对人群疏散的作用机理，构建支持城市洪水耦合人群疏散全要素建模的元胞空间结构，完成城市洪水耦合人群疏散元胞自动机模拟算法，并在此基础上对城市洪水耦合人群疏散模型的尺度和参数敏感性进行分析。项目以浙江省江山市溃坝洪水演进及人群疏散为模拟情景和实验案例，开展基于元胞自动机的城市洪水-人群疏散耦合建模与分析。 本项目的研究有望促进元胞自动机对包括人文和自然地理要素的复杂地理现象进行建模与模拟的理论方法，不仅可以服务于城市防洪减灾的规划，也可以为城市突发洪水时的人员疏散预案和救援措施提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 虚拟地理环境；人地关系模型；地理过程耦合；元胞自动机

英文摘要： This project adopts cellular automata for the coupled modeling and analysis of complex geographic process containing human (crowd evacuation) and natural (flood routine) geographic elements. Firstly, the force mechanism that urban flood exerts on crowd evacuation is researched; then, the spatial structure and transition rules of cellular automata model are constructed and defined, which can support the coupling of urban flood routine and crowd evacuation; finally, the scale sensitivity and parameter sensitivity are analyzed based on the urban flood- crowd evacuation coupled cellular automata model. The dam-break flood routine and crowd evacuation in Jiangshan City of Zhejiang Province is taken as case study in the project, to carry out the modeling and analysis of urban flood- crowd evacuation coupled cellular automata. The project is expected to promote the modeling theories and simulation methods for complex geographical phenomena, which includes human and natural geographic elements. It is also expected to provide scientific basis for urban flood control planning, crowd evacuation planning, and rescue methods.

英文关键词： Virtual geographic environment;human-land relationship model;geographical process coupling;cellular automata