台风影响下的稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态变化规律

项目名称： 台风影响下的稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态变化规律

项目编号： No.31301655

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 农业科学

项目作者： 胡高

作者单位： 南京农业大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 台风对稻飞虱迁飞有极其重大的影响，可造成种群滞留、数量突增或突减，甚至导致种群暴发或崩溃。明确台风对稻飞虱迁飞和种群动态变化的影响机制，对实现我国稻飞虱精确预警和有效防控有重要的理论和现实意义。本项目拟结合GIS技术、WRF气象模式和轨迹分析方法，从中小尺度上探索台风影响下的稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态变化规律：1）研究台风不同演变阶段稻飞虱种群空间分布格局，从时间和空间推演稻飞虱种群时空动态变化规律；2）基于稻飞虱种群数量的时空变化和WRF模式构建的台风中小尺度大气背景场，计算回推和顺推轨迹，建立稻飞虱"虫源地-降落区"的对应关系；3）综合稻飞虱种群时空动态和"虫源地-降落区"对应关系，逐一分析台风不同演变阶段、不同结构区域的中小尺度大气背景场和其他环境因素，明确台风对稻飞虱迁飞影响的动力学机制。从而揭示灾害性天气对稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态的影响，为实现稻飞虱精确测报和有效防控提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 台风；中尺度模式；稻飞虱；种群暴发；迁飞

英文摘要： With windborne migration, rice planthoppers (RPH) are able to follow favourite habits in East Asia, to avoid seasonal unsuitable environmental changes and to maintain population persistence. However, the strong convective weather from a typhoon system often hampers RPH emigration process in the vicinity, and thus population residuals remain high. It also causes sudden increase or decrease of local field population, which may result in RPH population outbreak or collapse. Better understanding of typhoon impact on RPH migration processes and its population movements is essential for the accurate early warning of any significant infestation and the effective prevention of severe loss that may be caused by a sudden population outbreak. This study will use the spatial analysis technique of Geographic Information System (GIS), incorporated with the meso-scale model of Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) for the reconstruction of weather background and the 3-D model of wind trajectory for the estimation of RPH flights in a typhoon system, to investigate RPH migration mechanism and its spatial population redistribution under a typhoon system: (i) The influence on the RPH migration processes and its migration pathways form different zones and development stages of a typhoon system; (ii) The identification of source-sink

英文关键词： typhoon；Mesoscale model；rice planthopper；population outbreak；migration