内陆湖泊流域水循环过程模拟与调控研究

项目名称： 内陆湖泊流域水循环过程模拟与调控研究

项目编号： No.41461006

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 玉素甫江·如素力

作者单位： 新疆师范大学

项目金额： 52万元

中文摘要： 在变化环境下流域水-生态-经济系统之间的耦合关系就是在区域发展过程中这三个子系统相互作用、相互影响和相互制约等非线性关系的总合。人类生态经济建设的日益加剧和现代社会发展的提高加之流域常态水问题的复杂性和不确定性，导致流域水循环的失衡等问题，成为在自然变化和人类活动双重影响下区域水循环研究面临的关键科学问题之一。本项研究以典型的内陆湖泊流域- - 博斯腾湖流域为研究对象，面向流域水资源安全与生态经济可持续发展的现实需求，在变化环境下流域二元水循环时空动力学机制及其影响因素的作用机理作为主要科学问题，借助国内外相关领域的新理论和研究成果，基于空间系统动力学模拟技术，建立水-生态-经济非线性复合系统的双向耦合模型，揭示该系统的耦合机制，探求水循环演变机理及时空分异规律，研究流域高效用水机制，提出水资源可持续利用与管理的综合调控模式，为保障内陆湖泊流域生态安全与资源可持续利用提供理论依据和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 流域水循环；气候变化；土地利用；水资源配置；水文模型

英文摘要： Nonlinear relationships between water resources, ecology and economy are assembling of reciprocity, interacting and mutual restraint of these factors one another in the process of the regional development under environmental change. Along with intensifying of human pressure and enhancive water demand of socio-economy increased the complexity and uncertainty of original water resources issues，resulted in unbalanced water cycle in lake basins.These problems become a crucial scientific issue in the field of regional water cycle under climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Orienting the realistic demand of water resources safety and sustainable development of eco-economy, taking typical inland lake basin-Bosten lake basin in the Xinjiang, China as an example, regarding spatiotemporal Dynamics Mechanism of the Dualistic Water Cycle and functionary mechanisms of related factors as an important scientific problem, With the help of both the new theory and related research achievements at home and abroad, based on spatio-temporal system dynamics modeling techniques as an affective methodology, this research attempts (1) to modeling with bidirectional coupling of nonlinear complex system wich consists of water resources,ecology and economy;(2) To open out the bidirectional coupling mechanisms of the system ;(3) to search evolution rules and spatio-temporal variation of dualistic water cycle; (4)to study efficient water use and managing mechanisms;(5)To bring forward mode of integrated regulation and sustainable water resources management. This study also will add scientific values and support into the environmental safety and sustainable resource use in the inland lake basin.

英文关键词： watershed water cycle;climate change;land use;water allocation;hydrological model