我国制造业技术进步、结构调整与能源碳排放的回弹效应研究

项目名称： 我国制造业技术进步、结构调整与能源碳排放的回弹效应研究

项目编号： No.71303066

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 艾明晔

作者单位： 哈尔滨工程大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 研究我国制造业技术进步、结构调整对能源消费及碳排放的影响，对于处在工业化中后期的我国实现经济稳速增长的条件下实现2020年减排目标具有重要的现实意义。首先测算近二十年间的我国制造业终端能源消费碳排放量，应用LMDI分解方法对碳排放强度进行分解为技术进步效应和结构效应。在此基础上，本项目借鉴和吸收目前能源回弹效应理论的研究成果，进一步拓展回弹效应的研究领域：同时分析技术进步引发的能源碳排放的回弹效应和由于行业结构调整引发的制造业及其各行业的能源碳排放的回弹效应，并分析各行业之间的差异、表征出来的规律性以及所形成的内在机理。最后构建应用矩阵分析方法，基于分析结果针对处在矩阵内不同区域的行业提出不同的减排路径，并提出相应的能源政策与产业政策保障。

中文关键词： 回弹效应；技术进步；结构调整；碳排放；制造业

英文摘要： Analyzing the influence of technical progress and industry structure adjustment to energy consumption and its CO2 emission in China's manufacturing industries have practical significance in China. Especially, it is more important to achieve China's reducing emission target in 2020 by rapid economic growth. Firstly, the amount of CO2 emission induced by energy consumption in China's manufacturing industry during recent 20 years will be measured. By using LMDI, the change of CO2 emission density is decomposed into technical progress effect and industrial structure effect. Secondly, it tries to expand the edge of currently rebound effect field. Analyzing both CO2 emission rebound effect reducing by technical progress and CO2 emission rebound effect reducing by industrial structure shift. The reasons for differentiation of CO2 emission rebound effect in different sectors in China's manufacturing industry will be explained. The mechanism of CO2 emission rebound effect in China's manufacturing industry will be deduced as well. Finally, build upon the method of matrix analysis, the route of reducing CO2 emission will be designed according the result of rebound effect in different sectors. Some relative policy suggestions in energy and industry field will be given.

英文关键词： rebound effect；technological progress；structure adjustment；CO2 emission；manufacturing industry