消纳大规模间歇性可再生能源对智能电网脆弱性的影响研究

项目名称： 消纳大规模间歇性可再生能源对智能电网脆弱性的影响研究

项目编号： No.71471058

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李彦斌

作者单位： 华北电力大学

项目金额： 62万元

中文摘要： 随着间歇性可再生能源发电规模的不断增大，其消纳对智能电网的安全影响明显增强，致使智能电网的脆弱性问题日益突出。本项目的研究意在为改善我国能源消费结构与保障智能电网安全运行提供理论支撑。研究内容有：依据可再生能源发电间歇性的影响因素，利用Copula函数和随机过程理论，构建大规模间歇性可再生能源发电的多维度随机过程动态模型。其次，结合可再生能源间歇性影响因素和智能电网脆弱性影响因素，利用粗糙集理论和粒子群优化算法，建立消纳大规模间歇性可再生能源对智能电网脆弱性影响的指标集；利用可信性理论和贝叶斯网络，构建对智能电网脆弱性的多层多因素影响体系；利用六西格玛理论、前景理论和可信性理论，构建基于前景理论的K-sigma脆弱性评价模型。最后，结合多维度随机过程动态模型和脆弱性评价模型，利用可信性分布和扭曲函数，确定脆弱性指数，建立脆弱性指数方程，以实现对智能电网脆弱性级别的动态预测。

中文关键词： 间歇性；可再生能源；智能电网；脆弱性；可信性理论

英文摘要： With the enlargement of the electric power capacity from the renewable energy and its large-scale interminttent consumption and acceptance, the negative impacts on the vulnerability of the Smart Grid become increasingly severe. The proposed project aims at optimizing the constitution of energy consumption and putting forward intellectual strategies to guarantee the safe and stable operation of the Smart Grid in China. The outlined contents are listed as follows: (1) On basis of the on the Copula function and the Random Process theory, a dynamically stochastic process model is to be established in multi-dimensional degrees by analyzing the interminttent characteristics of the electric power generated from renewable energy and their impact factors. (2) By combining the factors affecting the intermittence of renewable energy and the vulnerability of the Smart Grid, vulnerability indexes set of Smart Grid will be constructed under the framework of the Rough Set Theory and the Particle Swarm Optimization. (3) A multi-level multi-factor system evaluating the vulnerability of Smart Grid is to be presented based on the Credibility theory and the Bayesian network. (4) By integrating the Six-Sigma management theory, the Prospect theory and the Credibility theory, a K-sigma vulnerability evaluation model is to be proposed. (5) Eventually, with the ulilization of the Reliability distribution and Distortion function, values of the indexes of the vulnerability will be determined by combining the multi-dimensional dynamically stochastic process model and the vulnerability evaluation model. Furthermore, equations of the indexes of the vulnerability are going to be constrcuted and solved, which will provide intectual countermeasures in guiding the stable operation of Smart Grid.

英文关键词： Intermittent;Renewable energy;Smart Grid;vulnerability;Credibility theory